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Asset pricing in a Lucas fruit-tree economy with the best and worst in mind

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  • Zimper, Alexander

Abstract

This paper studies a Lucas (1978) fruit-tree economy under the assumption that the agents are Choquet expected utility (CEU) rather than standard expected utility decision makers. More specifically, the agents' non-additive beliefs about the economy's dividend payment process are modeled as neo-additive capacities so that the agents' decision behavior emphasizes the best, respectively worst, possible economic scenarios. In contrast to existing models of Lucas-type economies with ambiguity averse agents (Epstein and Wang, 1994), which ensure dynamic consistency through heavy restrictions on admissible ambiguity attitudes, my approach gives up dynamic consistency to the effect that quite general ambiguity attitudes become admissible. As the main formal result I establish the existence of a unique stationary equilibrium price function for this CEU Lucas economy. As the main economic insight I obtain that a representative agent who is rather preoccupied with the worst case scenario gives rise to a lower risk-free rate and a higher equity premium than predicted by the original expected utility Lucas economy. This difference is the greater the more surprising the economic information is that the agent receives.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 610-628

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:4:p:610-628

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Choquet expected utility theory; Portfolio choice; Fat tails; Asset pricing puzzles; Equity premium; Risk-free rate;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Alexander Ludwig and Alexander Zimper, 2013. "Biased Bayesian Learning with an Application to the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Working Papers 390, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. Vadym Lepetyuk & Christian A. Stoltenberg, 2013. "Reconciling Consumption Inequality with Income Inequality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-124/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2013. "Ambiguous Survival Beliefs and Hyperbolic Discounting in a Life-Cycle Model," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79878, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2013. "A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs," MEA discussion paper series 13270, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  5. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2012. "A decision-theoretic model of asset-price underreaction and overreaction to dividend news," Working Papers 201223, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Christian A. Stoltenberg & Vadym Lepetyuk, 2012. "Reconciling consumption inequality with income inequality," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-19, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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