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The emergence of “fifty-fifty” probability judgements in a conditional Savage world

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  • Alexander Zimper

Abstract

This paper models the empirical phenomenon of persistent fifty-fifty probability judgements within a dynamic non-additive Savage framework. To this purpose I construct a model of Bayesian learning such that an agentÂ’s probability judgement is characterized as the solution to a Choquet expected utility maximization problem with respect to a conditional neo-additive capacity. Only for the […]

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  • Alexander Zimper, 2012. "The emergence of “fifty-fifty” probability judgements in a conditional Savage world," Working Papers 291, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:291
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