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Investment behavior under ambiguity: The case of pessimistic decision makers

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  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Zimper, Alexander

Abstract

We define pessimistic, respectively optimistic, investors as CEU (Choquet expected utility) decision makers who update their pessimistic, respectively optimistic, beliefs according to a pessimistic (Dempster-Shafer), respectively optimistic, update rule. This paper then demonstrates that, in contrast to optimistic investors, pessimistic investors may strictly prefer investing in an illiquid asset to investing in a liquid asset. Key to our result is the dynamic inconsistency of CEU decision making, implying that a CEU decision maker ex ante prefers a different strategy with respect to prematurely liquidating an uncertain long-term investment project than after learning her liquidity needs. Investing in an illiquid asset then serves as a commitment device guaranteeing an ex ante favorable outcome.
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  • Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2006. "Investment behavior under ambiguity: The case of pessimistic decision makers," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 111-130, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:52:y:2006:i:2:p:111-130
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2007. "Attitude polarization," Papers 07-66, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    4. Emy Lécuyer & Jean-Philippe Lefort, 2021. "Put–call parity and generalized neo-additive pricing rules," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 521-542, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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