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Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence

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Author Info
Gilberto Libanio () (UFMG)

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Abstract

The theme of unit roots in macroeconomic time series has received a great amount of theoretical and applied research in the last two decades. This paper presents some of the main issues regarding unit root tests, explores some of the implications for macroeconomic theory and policy, and reviews the recent evidence on the presence of unit roots in GDP series for Latin American countries. We conclude that a consensual view on many of the aspects involved has not emerged from this literature.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil) in its journal Nova Economia.

Volume (Year): 15 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (September-December)
Pages: 145-176
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Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:15:y:2005:i:3:p:145-176

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Related research
Keywords: time-series models; unit roots; business fluctuations;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
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  3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Aguirre, Antonio & Ferreira, Afonso Henriques Borges, 2001. "The (In)Existence of a Unit Root in Brazilian Gross Domestic Product," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(10), pages 645-47, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1987. "On "Real" and "Sticky-Price" Theories of the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 1933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
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  9. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Recent Developments in monetary policy analysis: The roles of theory and evidence," GSIA Working Papers 1999-12, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
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  10. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," Journal of Economic Education, Helen Dwight Reid Foundation, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
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  18. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. David E. Rapach, 2002. "Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 473-495, January.
  20. Kenneth D. West, 1989. "On the Interpretation of Near Random-Walk Behavior in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Re-examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(3), pages 661-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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