International evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations
AbstractThis paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real GNP. Two measures of persistence are estimated non-parametrically using post-war quarterly data from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom. and the United States. These estimates are compared with Monte Carlo results from various AR(2) processes. For six out of seven countries, the results indicate that a 1 percent shock to output should change the long-run univariate forecast of output by well over I percent. Low-order ARM models for output growth are also estimated, and yield similar conclusions. Finally, the persistence in relative outputs of different countries is examined.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 23 (1989)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Other versions of this item:
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Campbell, John, 1989. "International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations," Scholarly Articles 3224417, Harvard University Department of Economics.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.