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Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence

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  • Anindya Banerjee
  • Robin L. Lumsdaine
  • James H. Stock

Abstract

This paper investigates the possibility, raised by Perron (1989, 1990a), that aggregate economic time series can be characterized as being stationary around broken trend lines. Unlike Perron, we treat the break date as unknown a priori. Asymptotic distributions are developed for recursive, rolling, and sequential tests for unit roots and/or changing coefficients in time series regressions. The recursive and rolling tests are based on a time series of recursively estimated coefficients, computed using increasing subsamples of the data. The sequential statistics are computed using the full data set and a sequence of regressors indexed by a "break" date. When applied to data on real postwar output from seven DECO countries, these techniques fail to reject the unit root hypothesis for five countries (including the U.S.), but suggest stationarity around a shifted trend for Japan.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3510.

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Date of creation: Nov 1990
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Publication status: published as Journal of Business and Economic Statistics Volume 10, No. 3, pp. 271-287 July 1992
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3510

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  1. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November.
  2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  3. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  4. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  6. Kormendi, Roger C & Meguire, Philip, 1990. "A Multicountry Characterization of the Nonstationarity of Aggregate Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February.
  7. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1988. "International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
  9. Cogley, Timothy, 1990. "International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-18, June.
  10. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  11. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  14. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
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