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The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances

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Author Info
Blanchard, Olivier Jean
Quah, Danny

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Abstract

The authors interpret fluctuations in GNP and unemployment as due to two types of disturbances: disturbances that have a permanent effect on output and disturbances that do not. They interpret the first as supply disturbances, the second as demand disturbances. Demand disturbances have a hump-shaped, mirror-image effect on output and unemployment. The effect of supply disturbances on output increases steadily over time, peaking after two years and reaching a plateau after five years. Copyright 1989 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 79 (1989)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 655-73
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:79:y:1989:i:4:p:655-73

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Oliver J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988. "Searching For a Break in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Danny Quah, 1988. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identification and Some Theoretical Bounds," Working papers 498, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  9. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  12. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  14. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, April.
  17. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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