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Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications

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  • Dufourt, Frederic

Abstract

Standard stochastic growth models provide theoretical restrictions on output decomposition which can be used to investigate whether productivity shocks played a major role in observed business cycles. Applying these restrictions to US data leads to the following findings: i) Business cycles implied by productivity shocks are mildly correlated to overall fluctuations and help account for a few episodes of US postwar recessions. However, only 20% of US fluctuations can be explained by these shocks. ii) Most fluctuations seem instead to be due to "nominal demand" shocks, i.e. shocks which move output and prices in the same direction, but whose effects on output are ultimately transitory. iii) Canonical sticky price models in the New-Neoclassical Synthesis tradition can account for the cyclical comovements of output and prices, but canonical, frictionless, RBC models cannot.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 52 (2005)
Issue (Month): 6 (September)
Pages: 1089-1105

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:52:y:2005:i:6:p:1089-1105

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Cited by:
  1. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2006. "Measuring the Sources of Cyclical Fluctuations in the G7 Economies," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp06028, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  2. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2003. "Common Shocks, Common Dynamics, and the International Business Cycle," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03007, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  3. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2008. "Economic integration and industrial sector fluctuations: evidence from Italy," ISAE Working Papers 106, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  4. Kim, David, 2007. "An East Asian currency union?: The empirical nature of macroeconomic shocks in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 847-866, December.

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