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On the Interpretation of Near Random-Walk Behavior in GNP

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Kenneth D. West

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Abstract

It is shown that GNP will have an autoregressive root very close to unity in a variant of Taylor's (1980a,b) overlapping wage contracts model, for stylized versions of simple money supply rules and plausible values for the model's parameters. In this variant, monetary policy is the only reason for serial correlation in GNP. It is premature, therefore, to conclude, as some authors, have, that the presence of such a root in U.S. GNP is inconsistent with either a stationary natural rate or with nominal shocks playing a major role in the business cycle.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2364.

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Date of creation: Jul 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2364

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Walsh, Carl E, 1986. "In Defense of Base Drift," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 692-700, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Does GNP have a unit root?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(2-3), pages 147-151. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. De Long, James Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1031-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fama, Eugene F. & Gibbons, Michael R., 1982. "Inflation, real returns and capital investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 297-323. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Danny Quah, 1987. "What Do We Learn from Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series?," Working papers 469, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  8. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1987. "The optimal collection of seigniorage : Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 327-341, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1977. "The Inefficiency of Short-Run Monetary Targets for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1977-2), pages 293-346. [Downloadable!]
  14. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td228, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Torben M.Andersen & Svend Hylleberg, . "Sources of Persistence in Employment Adjustment - Denmark 1974-1993," Economics Working Papers 1998-19, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Danny Quah, 1991. "The Relative Importance of Permanent and Transitory Components: Identi- fication and Some Theoretical Bounds," NBER Technical Working Papers 0106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: a post Keynesian interpretation," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td233, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
  6. F. Goerlich, 1991. "Persistencia en las fluctuaciones económicas: evidencia para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 15(1), pages 193-202, January. [Downloadable!]
  7. Razzak, Weshah, 2003. "A Perspective on Unit Root and Cointegration in Applied Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 1970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Donald Freeman & David Yerger, 2000. "Does inflation lower productivity? Time series evidence on the impact of inflation on labor productivity in 12 OECD nations," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 315-332, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," NBER Working Papers 5809, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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