In Defense of Base Drift

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In Defense of Base Drift

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Walsh, Carl E

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Carl Walsh

Abstract

The Federal Reserve has been criticized for allowing the base from which it calculates its target growth paths for the monetary aggregatesto drift from year to year in response to past deviations from target.Drift in the base implies that target misses permanently affect the levels of the monetary aggregates. Using a simple theoretical model, this paper shows that the optimal degree of base drift consistent withprice stability depends on the importance of permanent versus transitory income and velocity disturbances. Neither zero base drift nor complete base drift are likely to be compatible with price stability. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 76 (1986)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 692-700
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:76:y:1986:i:4:p:692-700

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Michael D. Bordo & Ehsan U. Choudhri & Anna J. Schwartz, 1991. "Money Stock Targeting, Base Drift and Price-Level Predictability: Lessons From the U.K. Experience," NBER Working Papers 2825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Bordo, Michael D. & Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1990. "Money stock targeting, base drift, and price-level predictability : Lessons from the U.K. Experience," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 253-272, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
J. Peter Ferderer, 1999. "The Credibility of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Targets," Macroeconomics 9903006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 7152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Faust, J. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," Papers 669, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "The equilibrium degree of transparency and control in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 651, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Svensson, Lars & Faust, Jon, 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," Seminar Papers 669, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 520-39, May.
Philip A. Nuetzel, 1987. "The FOMC in 1986: flexible policy for uncertain times," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb, pages 15-29. [Downloadable!]
Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "The Impact of Monetary Targeting in the United States: 1976-1984," NBER Working Papers 2384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "The impact of monetary targeting in the United States, 1976-1984," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 87-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Chan Huh, 1995. "Interest rate smoothing and inflation, then and now," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct 13. [Downloadable!]
Kenneth D. West, 1989. "On the Interpretation of Near Random-Walk Behavior in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- West, Kenneth D, 1988. "On the Interpretation of Near Random-walk Behavior in GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 202-09, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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