Magnitude X on the Richter Scale: Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in Developing Countries
AbstractEconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates what constitutes a reasonable estimate of the welfare cost of business cycles in the US, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several model economies, we provide such a measure for a large number of low--income countries. Our first main result is that the welfare cost of output fluctuations per se is far from trivial in those countries, and typically averages 15 to 30 times the corresponding estimate for the US. Our second major result is that, in many poor countries, that cost may in fact exceed the welfare cost of significantly lower growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 124.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: forthcoming in the International Economic Review, 2002, new title On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries
Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 8888, Downtown Station, Montreal (Canada) Quebec, H3C 3P8
Phone: (514) 987-6181
Fax: (514) 987-8494
Web page: http://ideas.uqam.ca/CREFE/
More information through EDIRC
business cycles; consumption volatility; welfare cost;
Other versions of this item:
- Stephane Pallage and Michel A. Robe, 2001. "Magnitude X on the Richter Scale: Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in Developing Countries," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 97, Society for Computational Economics.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994.
"Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
- Jim Dolmas, 1998. "Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 646-676, July.
- Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., .
"On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles,"
GSIA Working Papers
243, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 1999. "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 245-272, January.
- Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994.
"Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
4719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 187-218 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weil, Philippe, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42, February.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000.
"Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
- C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
- Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 221-50, May.
- Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
- Stephane Pallage & Michel Robe, 1998.
"Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle,"
Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers
63, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1992. "Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 6976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994.
"Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1471-1486, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Evaluating Risky Consumption Paths: The Role of Intertemporal Substitutability," NBER Technical Working Papers 0120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010.
"The equity premium: a puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1401, David K. Levine.
- Gadi Barlevy, 2000. "Evaluating the Costs of Business Cycles in Models of Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers 1287, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
- Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992.
"Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
- Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 91/100, International Monetary Fund.
- Moore, Winston, 2010. "Managing the Process of Removing Capital Controls: What Does the Literature Suggest?," MPRA Paper 21584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Boucekkine, Raouf & Martinez, Blanca, 2003.
"Replacement, adoption and economic dynamics: lessons from a canonical creative destruction model,"
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-359, September.
- BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & MARTINEZ, Blanca, . "Replacement, adoption and economic dynamics: lessons from a canonical creative destruction model," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1657, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stéphane Pallage).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.