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Evaluating Asset-Pricing Models Using The Hansen-Jagannathan Bound: A Monte Carlo Investigation

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Author Info

  • Otrok, Christopher

    ()
    (University of Virginia)

  • Ravikumar, B.

    ()
    (University of Iowa)

  • Whiteman, Charles H.

    ()
    (University of Iowa)

Abstract

We conduct Monte Carlo experiments to examine whether the Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) bound is a useful device for evaluating asset pricing models. Specifically, we use recently developed statistical tests, which are based on a 'distance' between the model and the Hansen-Jagannathan bound, to compute the rejection rates of true models. We first demonstrate that previous Monte Carlo assessments suffer from subtle computational and conceptual errors. We then provide correct finite-sample critical values for asset pricing models with time separable preferences, and show how they depend upon nuisance parameters-risk aversion and the rate of time preference. Further, we show that the finite-sample distribution of the test statistic associated with the risk-neutral case is extreme, in the sense that critical values based on this distribution will deliver type I errors no larger than intended-regardless of risk aversion or the rate of time preference. Extending the analysis to accommodate other preferences, we show that in the state non-separable case, the small-sample distributions of the test statistics are influenced significantly by the degree of intertemporal substitution, but not by attitudes toward risk. For habit formation preferences, the small sample distributions are strongly influenced by the habit parameter. However, the maximal size critical values for time-separable preferences are appropriate for habit formation as well as state non-separable preferences. We conclude that with these critical values the HJ bound is indeed a useful evaluation device.

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File URL: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/econ/econinst/papers/hjmc.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Iowa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 99-01.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Aug 1998
Date of revision: Jan 1999
Handle: RePEc:uia:iowaec:99-01

Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Iowa, Department of Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City, Iowa 52242
Phone: (319) 335-0829
Fax: (319) 335-1956
Web page: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/economics/
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Related research

Keywords: Equity Premium; Asset Pricing; Spectral Analysis;

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References

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  1. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
  2. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  3. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
  5. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
  6. Otrok, C. & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, C., 1998. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle?," Working Papers 98-04, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  8. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1992. "Testing Volatility Restrictions on Intertemporal Marginal Rates of Substitution Implied by Euler Equations and Asset Returns," NBER Technical Working Papers 0124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lars Peter Hansen & John Heaton & Erzo Luttmer, 1993. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Heaton, John, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Asset Pricing with Temporally Dependent Preference Specifications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 681-717, May.
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. " Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-90, June.
  13. Abel, Andrew B., 1999. "Risk premia and term premia in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-33, February.
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  15. Phillippe Weil, 1997. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1833, David K. Levine.
  16. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  17. Burnside, Craig, 1994. "Hansen-Jagannathan Bounds as Classical Tests of Asset-Pricing Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 57-79, January.
  18. Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1989. "Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Volatility of Consumption and Wealth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 73-89.
  19. Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1992. "Sampling variability in Hansen-Jagannathan bounds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 263-267, March.
  20. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 4088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Otrok, Christopher & Ravikumar, B & Whiteman, Charles, 2001. "Stochastic Discount Factor Models and the Equity Premium Puzzle," MPRA Paper 22938, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2004.
  2. Qiang Zhang, 2004. "Accounting for Human Capital and Weak Identification in Evaluating the Esptein-Zin-Weil Non-Expected Utility Model of Asset Pricing," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-289, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  3. Silos, Pedro, 2006. "Assessing Markov chain approximations: A minimal econometric approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1063-1079, June.
  4. Romain Houssa, 2011. "Uncertainty about Welfare Effects of Consumption Fluctuations," Working Papers 1101, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
  5. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2008. "The exact distribution of the Hansen-Jagannathan bound," Working Paper 2008-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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