Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series
AbstractThis paper provides asymptotic confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root of a time series when this root is close to one. The intervals are readily constructed either graphically or using tables in the Appendix. When applied to the Nelson-Plosser (1982) data set, the main conclusion is that the confidence intervals typically are wide. The conventional emphasis on testing for whether the largest root equals one fails to convey the substantial sampling variability associated with this measure of persistence.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 28 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Other versions of this item:
- James H. Stock, 1991. "Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Technical Working Papers 0105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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