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Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Jang-Ok Cho

    (Sogang University)

  • Thomas Cooley

    (New York University)

  • Hyung Seok Kim

    (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)

Abstract

We study the welfare implications of uncertainty in business cycle models. In the modern business cycle literature, multiplicative real shocks to production and/or preferences play an important role as the impulses that produce aggregate fluctuations. Introducing shocks in this way has the implication that fluctuating economies may enjoy higher welfare than their steady state counterparts. This occurs because purposeful agents make use of uncertainty in their favor. The result holds for a range of reasonable parameter values and in many models considered in the business cycle literature. One implication is that the welfare cost estimates which have been obtained in the literature using only consumption series may be biased and possibly seriously. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Jang-Ok Cho & Thomas Cooley & Hyung Seok Kim, 2015. "Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 185-200, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:11-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2014.05.002
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    3. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2016. "Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 6262, CESifo.
    4. Heiberger, Christopher & Maußner, Alfred, 2020. "Perturbation solution and welfare costs of business cycles in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Cho, Daeha & Ma, Eunseong, 2023. "The heterogeneous welfare effects of business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    7. Dissou, Yazid & Karnizova, Lilia, 2016. "Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-188.
    8. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    9. Jaccard, Ivan & Smets, Frank, 2017. "Structural asymmetries and financial imbalances in the eurozone," Working Paper Series 2076, European Central Bank.
    10. Christopher Heiberger & Alfred Maussner, 2018. "Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare Revisited," Discussion Paper Series 335, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    11. Ulrich Eydam, 2021. "The Distributional Implications of Climate Policies Under Uncertainty," CEPA Discussion Papers 33, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    18. Gabriela Cugat, 2019. "Emerging markets, household heterogeneity, and exchange rate policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 526, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    20. Li, Qian & Shim, Myungkyu & Wen, Yongheng, 2017. "The implication of subsistence consumption for economic welfare," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 30-33.
    21. Mizuki Tsuboi, 2018. "Stochastic accumulation of human capital and welfare in the Uzawa–Lucas model: an analytical characterization," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 239-261, November.
    22. Merlin, Giovanni Tondin, 2018. "Entrepreneurship, financial frictions and the welfare gains of business cycles," Textos para discussão 484, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    23. Jean-Jacques Forneron, 2019. "A Sieve-SMM Estimator for Dynamic Models," Papers 1902.01456, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Welfare costs; Mean effect; Fluctuations effect; Multiplicate productivity shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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