Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Business Cycle Uncertainty and Economic Welfare

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jang-Ok Cho

    (Sogang University)

  • Thomas Cooley

    (New York University)

  • Hyung Seok Kim

    (Sogang University)

Abstract

We study the welfare implications of uncertainty in business cycle models. In the modern business cycle literature, multiplicative real shocks to production and/or preferences play an important role as the impulses that produce aggregate fluctuations. Introducing shocks in this way has the implication that fluctuating economies may enjoy higher welfare than their steady state counterparts. This occurs because purposeful agents make use of uncertainty in their favor. The result holds for a range of reasonable parameter values and in many models considered in the business cycle literature. One implication is that the welfare cost estimates which have been obtained in the literature using only consumption series may be biased and possibly seriously. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2014.05.002
Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and institutional members. See http://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): ()
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:red:issued:11-17

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Review of Economic Dynamics Academic Press Editorial Office 525 "B" Street, Suite 1900 San Diego, CA 92101
Fax: 1-314-444-8731
Email:
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/review.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/RED17.htm

Related research

Keywords: Business cycles; Welfare costs; Mean effect; Fluctuations effect; Multiplicate productivity shocks;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tom Krebs, 2007. "Job Displacement Risk and the Cost of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 664-686, June.
  4. Jim Dolmas, 1998. "Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 646-676, July.
  5. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z., 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time Over the Business Cycle," RCER Working Papers, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) 268, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2004. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2000. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Cost of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  9. Gomes, Joao & Greenwood, Jeremy & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Equilibrium unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 109-152, August.
  10. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," NBER Working Papers 14768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
  13. Jang-Ok Cho & Merrigan, Philip & Phaneuf, Louis, 1998. "Weekly employee hours, weeks worked and intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 185-199, February.
  14. Gadi Barlevy, 2003. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 9970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Mark Bils & Jang-Ok Cho, 1993. "Cyclical factor utilization," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 79, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Jinill Kim and Sunghyun Henry Kim, 2001. "Spurious Welfare Reversals in International Business Cycle Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001, Society for Computational Economics 3, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 1999. "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 245-272, January.
  18. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
  19. Massimiliano De Santis, 2007. "Individual Consumption Risk and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1488-1506, September.
  20. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
  21. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2000. "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles Revisited: Finite Lives and Cyclical Variation in Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 8040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July.
  23. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1471-1486, August.
  24. Ellison, Martin & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Welfare cost of business cycles in economies with individual consumption risk," Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland 25/2012, Bank of Finland.
  25. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
  26. Alogoskoufis, George S, 1987. "On Intertemporal Substitution and Aggregate Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 938-60, October.
  27. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2007. "Insurance and Opportunities: A Welfare Analysis of Labor Market Risk," NBER Working Papers 13673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Klein, Paul & Ventura, Gustavo, 2009. "Productivity differences and the dynamic effects of labor movements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1059-1073, November.
  29. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "On the Welfare Costs of Consumption Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 12763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  31. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-87, December.
  32. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  33. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, And Policy (In)Variance Of Dsge Model Parameters," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 193-220, 01.
  34. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  35. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  36. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:11-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.