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Growth, Cycles and Stabilisation Policy

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  • K Blackburn
  • A Pelloni

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the joint determination of growth and business cycles with the view to studying the long-run implications of short-term monetary stabilisation policy. The analysis is based on a simple stochastic growth model in which both real and nominal shocks have permanent effects on output due to nominal rigidities (wage contracts) and an endogenous technology (learning-by-doing). It is shown that there is a negative correlation between the mean and variance of output growth irrespective of the source of fluctuations. It is also shown that, in spite of this, there may exist a conflict between short-term stabilisation and long-term growth depending on the type of disturbance. Finally, it is shown that, from a welfare perspective, the optimal monetary policy is that policy which maximises long-run growth to the exclusion of stabilisation considerations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0216.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0216

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  1. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Portier, Franck, 1993. "Money, New-Keynesian macroeconomics and the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1533-1568, December.
  2. Speight, Alan E H, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-84, May.
  3. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
  4. Richard Rogerson, 2010. "Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 250, David K. Levine.
  5. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
  6. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1995. "Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 1281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 1999. "Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 7063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sorensen, Jan Rose, 1992. " Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in a Wage Bargaining Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(3), pages 443-55.
  10. Cho, J.O. & Cooley, T.F., 1991. "The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts," RCER Working Papers 260, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, 07.
  12. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September.
  13. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Erik Canton, 2002. "Business cycles in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 477-492.
  15. Smith, R Todd, 1996. "Cyclical Uncertainty, Precautionary Saving and Economic Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 477-94, August.
  16. Kneller, Richard & Young, Garry, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-52, Special I.
  17. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  18. Fatás, Antonio, 1996. "Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends," CEPR Discussion Papers 1340, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  20. Rankin, Neil, 1994. "Nominal Rigidity and Monetary Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Aghion, P. & Saint-Paul, G., 1991. "On The Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction Between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," DELTA Working Papers 91-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  22. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1995. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 303-315, April.
  23. Pelloni, Alessandra, 1997. "Nominal Shocks, Endogenous Growth and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(441), pages 467-74, March.
  24. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-44, August.
  25. Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
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  1. A defence of austerity
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2012-05-18 13:16:36
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