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Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth

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Author Info
Kneller, Richard
Young, Garry

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Abstract

Using data for 24 OECD economies from 1961 to 1997 we investigate whether the empirical relationship between business cycle volatility and long-run growth is positive, as Blackburn (1999) suggests, or negative, the view of the UK and other governments. The existing empirical literature is ambiguous on this issue. Here we account for the disparate results and find a significant negative relationship. This relationship is found to depend crucially on the time dimension of the data. We also find that oil price volatility and inflation uncertainty, as indicators of world and general shocks, are robustly correlated with growth. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 69 (2001)
Issue (Month): 5 (Special Issue)
Pages: 534-52
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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:69:y:2001:i:5:p:534-52

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  2. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2005. "On the Effect of Monetary Stabilisation Policy on Long-run Growth (Revised September 2005)," Economics Discussion Papers 587, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Franz R. Hahn, 2003. "Financial Development and Macroeconomic Volatility. Evidence from OECD Countries," WIFO Working Papers 198, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related ? Evidence from five European countries," Discussion Paper Series 2008_17, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  7. K Blackburn & D Varvarigos, 2006. "Human Capital Accumulation in a Stochastic Environment: Some New Results on the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 74, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Duffield, James A. & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2006. "Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(01), April. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jeannine Bailliu & Robert Lafrance & Jean-François Perrault, 2002. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," Working Papers 02-17, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Vedenov, Dmitry & Duffield, James & Wetzstein, Michael, 2005. "Entry of Alternative Fuels in a Volatile U.S. Gasoline Market," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19182, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  12. K C Neanidis & D Varvarigos, 2005. "The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth: Volatility of Disbursements and Distribution of Receipts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 56, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  13. K Blackburn & D Varvarigos, 2005. "Growth, Uncertainty and Finance," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 48, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jörg Döpke, 2004. "How Robust is the Empirical Link between Business-Cycle Volatility and Long-Run Growth in OECD Countries?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Claudia M. Buch & Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Financial Openness and Business Cycle Volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1121, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Keith Blackburn, 2005. "Growth, Uncertainty and Finance," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  17. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1129, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Claudia M. Buch, 2002. "Business Cycle Volatility and Globalization: A Survey," Kiel Working Papers 1107, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  19. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2009. "Volatility, growth and cycles," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 177-192, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. K Blackburn & R Galindev, 2003. "Growth, volatility and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 25, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  21. Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2007. "Uncertainty, learning and growth," MPRA Paper 7398, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Zhang, Zibin & Wetzstein, Michael, 2008. "New relationships: ethanol, corn, and gasoline volatility," Transition to a Bio Economy Conferences, Risk, Infrastructure and Industry Evolution Conference, June 24-25, 2008, Berkeley, California 48718, Farm Foundation. [Downloadable!]
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