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UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence

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  • Speight, Alan E H
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    Abstract

    This paper reexamines the empirical evidence concerning the relationship between U.K. output variability and growth using GARCH-M models applied to postwar monthly industrial production data, estimated under quasimaximum-likelihood with the consistent variance-covariance estimator of T. Bollerslev and J. M. Wooldridge (1992). In contrast to previous results suggesting a significant positive relationship between U.K. output variability and growth, the author finds no significant relationship. Rather than suggesting a connection between risk and return in the attitudes of investors, his findings may be interpreted as more supportive of macroeconomic models that dichotomize the determination of output growth and variability. Copyright 1999 by Scottish Economic Society.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Scottish Economic Society in its journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy.

    Volume (Year): 46 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 175-84

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:46:y:1999:i:2:p:175-84

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    Cited by:
    1. K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2002. "Growth, Cycles and Stabilisation Policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0216, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2004. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Are they related?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 51, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    4. Henry, O.T. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "The Effect of Recessions on the Relationship between Output Variability and Growth," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 745, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Wen-Shwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "The Great Moderation and The Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 819-838, January.
    6. K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2001. "On the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility in Learning-by-Doing Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 01, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    7. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September.
    8. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2005. "The Relationship between Growth and Volatility under Alternative Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 589, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    9. Stefan C. Norrbin & F. Pinar Yigit, 2005. "The Robustness of the Link between Volatility and Growth of Output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 343-356, July.

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