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Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related ? Evidence from five European countries

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Author Info
Stilianos Fountas () (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia)
Menelaos Karanasos () (Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University)

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Abstract

We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy uncertainty, we obtain two important results. First, more uncertainty about output leads to a higher rate of growth in three of the five countries. Second, output growth reduces its uncertainty in all countries except one. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and provide strong support to the recent emphasis by macroeconomists on the joint examination of economic growth and the variability of the business cycle.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Macedonia in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2008_17.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision: Dec 2008
Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2008_17

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Related research
Keywords: Output growth; output growth uncertainty; GARCH.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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