Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Inflation and Growth: Regime-Dependent Effects in the G7
AbstractWe analyze the causal effects of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth and examine whether these effects vary with the level of inflation and location on the business cycle. Employing a bivariate Smooth Transition VAR GARCH-M model for the G7 countries during the period 1957- 2009, we find strong nonlinearities in these effects. First, uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related with a higher average growth rate mostly in the low-growth regime, supporting the theory of “creative destruction”. Second, higher inflation uncertainty induces lower growth rates, increasingly so at the high-inflation regime. Third, real and nominal uncertainties have mixed effects on average inflation. Nevertheless, there is a trend in favour of the Cukierman- Meltzer hypothesis in the high-inflation regime. Our results can be viewed as offering an explanation for the often mixed and ambiguous findings in the literature.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 145.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-07-17 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FDG-2010-07-17 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2010-07-17 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-07-17 (Monetary Economics)
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