Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dijk, Dick van
  • Franses, Philip Hans

Abstract

The interest in business-cycle asymmetry has beensteadily increasing over the past 15 years. Most research has focused onthe different behavior of macroeconomic variables during expansions andcontractions, which by now is well documented. Recent evidence suggests thatsuch a two-phase characterization of the business cycle might be toorestrictive. In particular, it might be worthwhile to decompose the recoveryphase in a high-growth phase (immediately following the trough of a cycle)and a subsequent moderate-growth phase. The issue ofmultiple regimes in the business cycle is addressed usingsmooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) models. A possiblelimitation of STAR models as they currently are used is that essentiallythey deal with only two regimes. We propose a generalization of the STARmodel such that more than two regimes can be accommodated.It is demonstratedthat the class of multiple-regime STAR (MRSTAR) models can beobtained from the two-regime model in a simple way.The main properties of the MRSTAR model and several issues that arerelevant for empirical specification are discussed in detail.In particular, a Lagrange multiplier-type test is derived that can beused to determine the appropriate number of regimes. A limitedsimulation study indicates its practical usefulness.Application of the new model class to U.S. real GNP provides evidence infavor of the existence of multiple business-cycle phases.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S136510059901202X
File Function: link to article abstract page
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 3 (1999)
Issue (Month): 03 (September)
Pages: 311-340

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:03:p:311-340_01

Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_MDYProvider-Email:journals@cambridge.org

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun.
  2. Kenneth M. Emery & Evan F. Koenig, 1992. "Forecasting turning points: is a two-state characterization of the business cycle appropriate?," Research Paper 9214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  4. Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Wynne, Mark A. & Balke, Nathan S., 1992. "Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 183-189, June.
  6. J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Papers 887, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  9. Pesaran, H.M. & Potter, S.M., 1995. "A Floor and Ceiling Model of U.S. Output," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9407, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
  12. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Rothman, Philip, 1988. "Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle," Working Papers 88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  14. Neftci, Salih N, 1993. "Statistical Analysis of Shapes in Macroeconomic Time Series: Is There a Business Cycle?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 215-24, April.
  15. Falk, Barry L., 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Staff General Research Papers 11097, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  16. Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle duration dependence: a parametric approach," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 98, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  18. Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October.
  19. Jansen, Eilev S. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 53, Stockholm School of Economics.
  20. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
  21. Ramsey, J.B. & Rothman, P., 1993. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Working Papers 93-39, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  22. Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-44, October.
  23. Astatkie, T. & Watts, D. G. & Watt, W. E., 1997. "Nested threshold autoregressive (NeTAR) models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 105-116, March.
  24. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  25. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
  26. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
  27. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
  28. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:03:p:311-340_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.