Business Cycle Duration Dependence: A Parametric Approach
AbstractThis paper reexamines duration dependence in U.S. business cycles using parametric hazard models. Positive duration dependence would indicate that expansions or contractions are more likely to end as they become "older." This paper provides statistically significant evidence of positive duration dependence for expansions before World War II and contractions after World War II. The evidence is stronger than in earlier research utilizing nonparametric techniques, because certain nonparametric techniques have low statistical power against the type of duration dependence found in this paper. Evidence is also presented suggesting that expansions became longer, on average, after World War II, while contractions became shorter. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.
Volume (Year): 73 (1991)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle duration dependence: a parametric approach," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 98, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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