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Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production

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Author Info

  • Nadir Ocal

    (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Odtu, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Denise R. Osborn

    (School of Economic Studies, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK)

Abstract

This paper develops non-linear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models with two additive smooth transition components to capture the business cycle characteristics of UK real consumers' expenditure and industrial production. The results indicate consumption has essentially two business cycle regimes: recession and expansion. Industrial production, however, is characterized by the three regimes of recession, normal growth and high growth. The transitions describing recovery from recession are very similar for the two variables. Stochastic simulations illustrate the dynamic responses of these models and emphasize that they are locally linear. Our results also indicate that the two-transition STAR models have some forecast advantages over other specifications for periods of contraction. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 27-43

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:15:y:2000:i:1:p:27-43

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References

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  10. Simon M. Potter, 1993. "A Nonlinear Approach to U.S. GNP," UCLA Economics Working Papers 693, UCLA Department of Economics.
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  16. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 35, May.
  2. Faria, João Ricardo & Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Mourelle, Estefanía, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and unemployment: A nonlinear bidirectional causality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1282-1291, September.
  3. Stephen Dobson & John Goddard, 2008. "Strategic behaviour and risk taking in football," Working Papers 2008/7, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," Working Papers 2009/2, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  5. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2008. "Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: do African exchange rates follow a radom walk?," Working Papers 2008/8, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  6. Holmes, Mark J. & Maghrebi, Nabil, 2004. "Asian real interest rates, nonlinear dynamics, and international parity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-405.
  7. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Papers 367, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
  8. Wu-Jen Chuang & Liang-Yuh Ou-Yang & Wen-Chen Lo, 2009. "Nonlinear Market Dynamics Between Stock Returns And Trading Volume: Empirical Evidences From Asian Stock Markets," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 621-634, November.
  9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2879-2888.
  10. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206.
  11. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  12. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2001. "Nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and predictability in stock markets: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 459-482.
  13. Christopher Martin & Michael Arghyrou & Costas Milas, 2004. "Nonlinear inflation dynamics: evidence from the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  14. M.Fatih Oztek & Nadir Ocal, 2013. "Financial Crises, Financialization of Commodity Markets and Correlation of Agricultural Commodity Index with Precious Metal Index and S&P500," ERC Working Papers 1302, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Feb 2013.
  15. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2008. "Modelo de Crescimento Baseado nas Exportações: Evidências empíricas para Chile, Brasil e México, em uma perspectiva Não Linear," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807170923500, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  16. Moritz Cruz, 2005. "A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 399-402.
  17. Mark J.Holmes, 2002. "Are there non linearities in US: Latin American real exchange behavior," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 177-190, December.
  18. M. Fatih Oztek & Nadir Ocal, 2012. "Integration of China Stock Markets with International Stock Markets: An application of Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation with Double Transition Functions," ERC Working Papers 1209, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2012.
  19. Omar A Mendoza Lugo, 2008. "The differential impact of real interest rates and credit availability on private investment: evidence from Venezuela," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 501-537 Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Nadir Ocal, 2002. "Asymmetric effects of military expenditure between Turkey and Greece," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 405-416.
  21. JAWADI Fredj, 2008. "Does nonlinear econometrics confirm the macroeconomic models of consumption?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(17), pages 1-11.

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