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Threshold Models for Trended Time Series Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Kapetanios, G.
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This paper presents the theoretical development of new threshold autoregressive models based on trended time series. The theoretical arguments underlying the models are outlined and a nonlinear economic model is used to derive the specification of the empirical econometric models. Estimation and testing issues are considered and analysed. Additionally, the models are applied to the empirical investigation of US GDP. The results are encouraging and warrant further research.
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number
9905.
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Date of creation: Jan 1999Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9905Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm
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Keywords: Nonlinearity ; Threshold models ; EDTAR models ; Forecasting ; Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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