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Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l’éducation en France (1815-2003) : Vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif

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Author Info
Jean-Pascal Guironnet () (LAMETA, Université de Montpellier 1.)

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Abstract

L’objectif de cet article est d’étudier l’évolution, sur longue période, des effectifs scolarisés français. Au cours du XIXe et XXe siècle, le développement du système éducatif s’est effectué non pas linéairement mais de manière convulsive. Partant de là, nous choisissons une formalisation économétrique en seuil afin d’identifier les ruptures de grandes ampleurs dans la composante cyclique de la série des effectifs scolarisés. Notre approche cliométrique met ainsi en évidence trois « cycles de croissance » de l’Éducation nationale et apporte une nouvelle interprétation économique de deux siècles d’histoire de la scolarisation.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its series Working Papers with number 05-11.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:05-11

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Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org
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Related research
Keywords: Modèles à seuil ; éducation ; non linéarité;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Model Selection in Threshold Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9906, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  3. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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