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Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l’éducation en France (1815-2003) : Vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif

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  • Jean-Pascal Guironnet

Abstract

L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier l'évolution, sur longue période, des effectifs scolarisés français. Au cours des XIX[e] et XXe siècles, le développement du système éducatif s'est effectué non pas linéairement mais de manière convulsive. Partant de là, nous choisissons une formalisation économétrique en seuil afin d'identifier les ruptures de grandes ampleurs dans la composante cyclique de la série des effectifs scolarisés. Notre approche cliométrique met ainsi en évidence trois « cycles de croissance » de l'Éducation nationale et apporte une nouvelle interprétation économique de deux siècles d'histoire de la scolarisation.

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File URL: http://www.lameta.univ-montp1.fr/Documents/DR2005-05.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier in its series Working Papers with number 05-05.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision: Jan 2005
Handle: RePEc:lam:wpaper:05-05

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  1. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  2. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Model Selection in Threshold Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9906, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  4. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December.
  5. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
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