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Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913

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  • Eugene Canjels

    (Deloitte & Touche LLP)

  • Gauri Prakash-Canjels

    (Howrey and Simon)

  • Alan M. Taylor

    (University of California, Davis, NBER, and CEPR)

Abstract

A major question in the literature on the classical gold standard concerns the efficiency of international arbitrage. Authors have examined efficiency by looking at the spread of the gold points, gold point violations, or the flow of gold, or by tests of various asset market criteria, including speculative efficiency and interest arbitrage. These studies have suffered from many limitations, both methodological and empirical. We offer a new methodology for measuring market integration based on nonlinear theoretical models and threshold autoregressions. We also compile a new, high-frequency series of continuous daily data from 1879 to 1913. We can derive reasonable econometric estimates of the implied gold points and price dynamics. The changes in these measures over time provide an insight into the evolution of market integration. © 2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 86 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 868-882

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:86:y:2004:i:4:p:868-882

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  1. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, April.
  3. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December.
  4. Barry Eichengreen, 1990. "Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending," NBER Working Papers 3411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Officer, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dollar-Sterling Mint Parity and Exchange Rates, 1791–1834," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 579-616, September.
  6. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  7. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Model Selection in Threshold Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9906, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Bruce Blonigen & Anca Cristea, 2013. "The Effects of the Interstate Commerce Act on Transport Costs: Evidence from Wheat Prices," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 41-62, August.
  2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
  3. Jacks, David S., 2006. "What drove 19th century commodity market integration?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 383-412, July.
  4. Boerner, Lars & Volckart, Oliver, 2011. "The utility of a common coinage: Currency unions and the integration of money markets in late Medieval Central Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 53-65, January.
  5. David Chilosi & Oliver Volckart, 2009. "Money, states and empire: financial integration cycles and institutional change in Central Europe, 1400-1520," Economic History Working Papers 27884, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  6. Volckart, Oliver & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2004. "Estimating medieval market integration: Evidence from exchange rates," Discussion Papers 2004/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  7. A. Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2013. "Are oil, gold and the euro inter-related? Time series and neural network analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, January.
  8. Morys, Matthias, 2013. "Discount rate policy under the Classical Gold Standard: Core versus periphery (1870s–1914)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 205-226.

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