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Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending

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Eichengreen, Barry

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Abstract

Over the past century, the world economy has passed through a succession of phases characterized by very different levels of international capital flows. This paper asks what accounts for these dramatic shifts in the extent of capital movements across national borders. Three categories of explanation are considered. The first emphasizes the policy regime, attributing the unusual extent of capital flows prior to 1914 to the operation of the international gold standard. The second focuses on the stages-of-indebtedness sometimes thought to characterize the process of economic development. The third ascribes changes in the extent of capital flows to the boom-and-bust cycles through which international capital markets are thought to pass. Though each approach contributes something to our understanding of the phenomenon, none is totally satisfactory. I therefore suggest an alternative explanation, which lays stress on the increase in the magnitude of real interest rate and real exchange variability that has occurred over the last 100 years.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 451.

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Date of creation: Aug 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:451

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Related research
Keywords: Capital Flows; Debt; Gold Standard;

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "International capital mobility in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 472, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 4141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Jérôme Héricourt & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "A new look at the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle : an "European-Regional" perspective," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j05070, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "Tax Policy and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 4851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship," NBER Working Papers 5743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 5742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mauricio Avella Gómez, 2003. "Antecedentes históricos de la deuda externa colombiana. La Paz Británica," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 5(9), pages 90-127, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  8. Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2006. "Does Financial Integration Spur Economic Growth? New Evidence from the First Era of Financial Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2001. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Argentina and the World Capital Market: Saving, Investment, and International Capital Mobility in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 6302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1999. "Is Globalization Today Really Different than Globalization a Hunderd Years Ago?," NBER Working Papers 7195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bertrand BLANCHETON (CMHE-IFReDE-GRES) & Samuel MAVEYRAUD-TRICOIRE (Université Bordeaux IV), 2006. "The indicators of international financial integration: A set of convergent measures (In French)," Cahiers du GRES 2006-13, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dani Rodrik, 1995. "Why is there Multilateral Lending?," NBER Working Papers 5160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Eugene Canjels & Gauri Prakash-Canjels & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," NBER Working Papers 10583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Gauri Prakash & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Measuring Market Integration: A Model of Arbitrage with an Econometric Application to the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," NBER Working Papers 6073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Inaki Erauskin-Iurrita, 2004. "The current account and the new rule in a two-country world," International Finance 0412004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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