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Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending

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Eichengreen, Barry

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Abstract

Over the past century, the world economy has passed through a succession of phases characterized by very different levels of international capital flows. This paper asks what accounts for these dramatic shifts in the extent of capital movements across national borders. Three categories of explanation are considered. The first emphasizes the policy regime, attributing the unusual extent of capital flows prior to 1914 to the operation of the international gold standard. The second focuses on the stages-of-indebtedness sometimes thought to characterize the process of economic development. The third ascribes changes in the extent of capital flows to the boom-and-bust cycles through which international capital markets are thought to pass. Though each approach contributes something to our understanding of the phenomenon, none is totally satisfactory. I therefore suggest an alternative explanation, which lays stress on the increase in the magnitude of real interest rate and real exchange variability that has occurred over the last 100 years.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 451.

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Date of creation: Aug 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:451

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Keywords: Capital Flows; Debt; Gold Standard;

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "International capital mobility in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 472, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 4141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Driffill, J. & Sola, M., 1992. "Testing the Present Value Hypothesis from a Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Regime Switching," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9216, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jérôme Héricourt & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "A new look at the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle : an "European-Regional" perspective," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j05070, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Fairburn, J.A. & Malcomson, J.M., 1993. "Rewarding Performance by Promotion to a Different Job (European Economic Review, Vol.38, No.s 3/4, April 1994, pp.683-690)," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9316, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  6. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "Tax Policy and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 4851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship," NBER Working Papers 5743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 5742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mauricio Avella Gómez, 2003. "Antecedentes históricos de la deuda externa colombiana. La Paz Británica," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 5(9), pages 90-127, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  10. Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2006. "Does Financial Integration Spur Economic Growth? New Evidence from the First Era of Financial Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2001. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ulph, A. & Ulph, D., 1994. "Trade, Strategic Innovation and Strategic Environmental Policy - A General Analysis," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9416, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  13. Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Argentina and the World Capital Market: Saving, Investment, and International Capital Mobility in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 6302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1999. "Is Globalization Today Really Different than Globalization a Hunderd Years Ago?," NBER Working Papers 7195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Halonen, M. & Williams, I., 1997. "Incomplete Contracts, Vertical Integration and Product Market Competition," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9716, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  16. Bertrand BLANCHETON (CMHE-IFReDE-GRES) & Samuel MAVEYRAUD-TRICOIRE (Université Bordeaux IV), 2006. "The indicators of international financial integration: A set of convergent measures (In French)," Cahiers du GRES 2006-13, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales. [Downloadable!]
  17. Dani Rodrik, 1995. "Why is there Multilateral Lending?," NBER Working Papers 5160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Hoffmann, M., 1999. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and a New Measure of International Capital Mobility," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9916, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  19. Qizilbash, M., 1995. "Egalitarian Justice, Capability and Well-Being Prospects," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9516, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  20. Gibbens, R. & Mason, R. & Steinberg, R., 1998. "Multiproduct Competition Between Congestible Networks," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9816, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  21. Eugene Canjels & Gauri Prakash-Canjels & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," NBER Working Papers 10583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Gauri Prakash & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Measuring Market Integration: A Model of Arbitrage with an Econometric Application to the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," NBER Working Papers 6073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Mukerji, S., 1996. "Ambiguity Aversion and Incompleteness of Contractual Form," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9616, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Inaki Erauskin-Iurrita, 2004. "The current account and the new rule in a two-country world," International Finance 0412004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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