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Unemployment And Hysteresis: A Nonlinear Unobserved Components Approach

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  • Alicia Pérez Alon

    () (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Silvestro Di Sanzo

    (Universidad de Alicante)

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    Abstract

    The aim of this paper is to find a possible hysteresis effect on unemployment rate series from Italy, France and the United States. We propose a definition of hysteresis taken from Physics which allows for nonlinearities. To test for the presence of hysteresis we use a nonlinear unobserved components model for unemployment series. The estimation methodology used can be assimilated into a threshold autoregressive representation in the framework of a Kalman filter. To derive an appropriate p-value for a test for hysteresis we propose two alternative bootstrap procedures: the first is valid under homoskedastic errors and the second allows for general heteroskedasticity. We investigate the performance of both bootstrap procedures using Monte Carlo simulation.

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2005-34.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2005
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2005-34.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2005
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published by Ivie
    Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2005-34

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    Related research

    Keywords: Hysteresis; Unobserved Components Model; Threshold Autoregressive Models; Nuisance parameters; Bootstrap;

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    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam, 2004. "Unemployment, Hysteresis And Transition," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(3), pages 377-401, 08.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr.
    6. Mortensen, Dale T, 1989. " The Persistence and Indeterminancy of Unemployment in Search Equilibrium," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(2), pages 347-70.
    7. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
    9. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
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