Unemployment And Hysteresis: A Nonlinear Unobserved Components Approach
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to find a possible hysteresis effect on unemployment rate series from Italy, France and the United States. We propose a definition of hysteresis taken from Physics which allows for nonlinearities. To test for the presence of hysteresis we use a nonlinear unobserved components model for unemployment series. The estimation methodology used can be assimilated into a threshold autoregressive representation in the framework of a Kalman filter. To derive an appropriate p-value for a test for hysteresis we propose two alternative bootstrap procedures: the first is valid under homoskedastic errors and the second allows for general heteroskedasticity. We investigate the performance of both bootstrap procedures using Monte Carlo simulation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2005-34.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Hysteresis; Unobserved Components Model; Threshold Autoregressive Models; Nuisance parameters; Bootstrap;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2006-02-05 (Econometrics)
- NEP-MAC-2006-02-05 (Macroeconomics)
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