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The Nature of Regional Unemployment in Italy

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  • Matteo Lanzafame

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Abstract

This paper investigates the nature of regional unemployment in Italy. Taking as a starting point the evidence of growing disparities in the 1977-2003 years, we assess whether regional unemployment rates are diverging from each other in a non-stationary way, i.e. as a result of pure hysteresis. Relying both on univariate and panel unit-root tests, we show that the finding of a unit root in the Italian regional unemployment rates, which previous studies provided evidence of, is largely dependent on the use of low power tests. Exploiting the greater power of panel unit root tests allows us to confidently reject the unit root and, thus, the pure hysteresis hypothesis. The implication of this result is that, however persistent, shocks to regional unemployment will be temporary, in the sense that unemployment will return to its natural rate or NAIRU in the long-run. We, then, proceed to estimate the NAIRU for each of the 20 Italian regions. Our estimates of the regional NAIRUs turn out to be fairly precise, at least if compared to similar studies in the literature, and allow us to draw two interesting conclusions. Firstly, the hypothesis of a constant NAIRU between 1977 and 2003 is supported by the data for all of the Italian regions, with the possible exception of Abruzzo. Secondly, we find that there is a significant degree of heterogeneity among the regional NAIRUs. Thus, long-term regional unemployment disparities do seem to reflect structural or equilibrium unemployment differences across regions, as implied by the results of the unit root tests. This suggests that economic policy intervention aimed at reducing long-term regional unemployment differentials in Italy should, as much as possible, be region-specific in character. National policies, homogenous across regions, are likely to have diverse effects on the regional NAIRUs.

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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa06p155.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa06p155

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Cited by:
  1. Marianna Belloc & Riccardo Tilli, 2010. "Gender Unemployment Catching-up: Empirical Evidence from Italian Regions," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Group Munich 3300, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas Hurtado & María Alejandra Hernández Montes & Jhon Edwar Torres Gorron, 2014. "An Exploratory Analysis of Heterogeneity on Regional Labour Markets and Unemployment Rates in Colombia: An MFACT approach," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 802, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Lanzafame, Matteo, 2013. "Crime and regional growth in Italy," MPRA Paper 44343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Marianna Belloc & Riccardo Tilli, 2013. "Unemployment by gender and gender catching-up: Empirical evidence from the Italian regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(3), pages 481-494, 08.
  5. Dimitrios Bakas & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2014. "Unemployment by Gender: Evidence from EU Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 103-111, February.
  6. Evangelia Papapetrou & Dimitrios Bakas, 2012. "Unemployment in Greece: evidence from Greek regions," Working Papers, Bank of Greece 146, Bank of Greece.
  7. Giulio Cainelli & Sandro Montresor & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2014. "Spatial agglomeration and firm exit: a spatial dynamic analysis for Italian provinces," Small Business Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 213-228, June.

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