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Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates

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Author Info
Dixon, R.
Shepherd, D.

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Abstract

This paper has as its subject matter the behaviour of state unemployment rates over time. Arguments are presented which suggest that the common approach which entails regressing state or regional rate of unemployment on the national rate is not likely to yield much useful knowledge. As a positive contribution to the literature, this paper focuses on two things: first, the behaviour over time in the dispersion of state unemployment rates and their relationship with the business cycle and; second, tests for the presence of common trends and/or common cycles in the state unemployment rates. The results suggest that there is a case which can be made for regional policy in Australia.

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File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/SITE/research/workingpapers/wp00_01/730.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 730.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:730

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Related research
Keywords: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT ; UNEMPLOYMENT ; BUSINESS CYCLES;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
R23 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
    Other versions:
  3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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    Other versions:
  5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 1997. "Common features and output fluctuations in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Hagger, A J, 1998. "The Natural Unemployment Rate in Australia since the Seventies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(224), pages 24-35, March.
  12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. R.J. Johnston, 1979. "On the relationships between regional and national unemployment trends," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 453-464, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  15. David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Phillips Curve in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "Labour Market Adjustment: Evidence on Interstate Labour Mobility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9801, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Crosby, M. & Olekalns, N., 1997. "Inflation, Unemployment and the Nairu in Australia," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 543, The University of Melbourne.
    Other versions:
  18. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. DeJong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1991. "Reconsidering 'trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 221-254, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Ng, Serena & Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Estimation and inference in nearly unbalanced nearly cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 53-81, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Ron Martin, 1997. "Regional Unemployment Disparities and their Dynamics," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 237-252, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Dixon, R. & Shepherd, D. & Thomson, J., 2000. "Regional Unemployment Disparities," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 737, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Mitchell, William F, 1993. "Testing for Unit Roots and Persistence in OECD Unemployment Rates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(12), pages 1489-1501, December.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ernst Juerg Weber, 2006. "Monetary policy in a heterogeneous monetary union: the Australian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2487-2495, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005. "An empirical note on testing hysteresis in unemployment for ten European countries: panel SURADF approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 881-886, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Matteo Lanzafame, 2006. "The Nature of Regional Unemployment in Italy," ERSA conference papers ersa06p155, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Nicolaas Groenewold & Alfred Hagger, 2007. "Regional Unemployment Disparities: An Evaluation of Policy Measures," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 07-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Working Papers 05_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert Dixon, 2007. "Common Cycles in Labour Market Separation Rates for Australian States," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 991, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  7. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2002. "The Relationship Between Regional and National Unemployment," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 469-480, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. George Verikios, 2004. "A Model of the World Wool Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Regional and Industry Cycles in Australasia: Implications for a Common Currency," Working Papers 05_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jeff Borland, 2000. "Disaggregated Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  13. David Gray, 2004. "Persistent Regional Unemployment Differentials Revisited," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 167-176, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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