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Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?

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Author Info
Elizabeth C. Wakerly
Byron G. Scott
James M. Nason

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Abstract

It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another prevalent belief is that Canada forms an optimal currency area (OCA). The authors uncover three serially correlated common cycles whose asymmetries suggest Canada is not an OCA. Their common trend-common cycle decomposition of regional outputs also reveals that trend shocks dominate fluctuations in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes in the short run and long run but not in British Columbia and the Prairie region. Thus, regional Canadian economic fluctuations are driven by a rich, diverse, and economically important set of propagation and growth mechanisms.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2004-5.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2004-5

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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  10. Proietti, Tommaso, 1997. "Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 405-22, August.
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  23. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Basher, Syed A. & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study," MPRA Paper 6685, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allen W. Gregory, 2006. "Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation," Working Papers 06-49, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Basher, Syed & Balli, Faruk & Louis, Rosmy, 2009. "Channels of risk-sharing among Canadian provinces: 1961–2006," MPRA Paper 17299, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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