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Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?

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  • Elizabeth C. Wakerly
  • Byron G. Scott
  • James M. Nason

Abstract

It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for regional Canadian per capita outputs. The authors present evidence that long-run movements are driven by two stochastic common trends in this time series. This evidence casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis for Canada. Another prevalent belief is that Canada forms an optimal currency area (OCA). The authors uncover three serially correlated common cycles whose asymmetries suggest Canada is not an OCA. Their common trend-common cycle decomposition of regional outputs also reveals that trend shocks dominate fluctuations in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes in the short run and long run but not in British Columbia and the Prairie region. Thus, regional Canadian economic fluctuations are driven by a rich, diverse, and economically important set of propagation and growth mechanisms.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2004-5.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2004-5

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Cited by:
  1. Nelson, Charles R., 2008. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in retrospect and prospect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 202-206, October.
  2. Basher, Syed A. & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study," MPRA Paper 6685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Jean Louis, Rosmy, 2011. "Channels of risk-sharing among Canadian provinces: 1961--2006," MPRA Paper 30876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.

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