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The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study

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  • Basher, Syed A.
  • Fachin, Stefano

Abstract

Migration between the Canadian provinces generally followed a declining trend over the period 1971-2004. In this paper, taking Ontario a case study, we seek to explain these patterns using recent panel cointegration methods that are robust to cross-section dependence. Estimation of heterogenous models suggests that the determinants of migration vary across provinces. Overall, unemployment differential and income in the sending province appear to be the most important ones, with income and federal transfer differentials playing only a minor role.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6685.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6685

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Keywords: Internal migration; panel cointegration; bootstrap; Canada;

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  1. Thomas J. Courchene, 1970. "Interprovincial Migration and Economic Adjustment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 550-76, November.
  2. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
  3. Masao Ogaki & Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regression," Working Papers 04-02, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Shaw, R Paul, 1986. "Fiscal versus Traditional Market Variables in Canadian Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 648-66, June.
  5. Kathleen Day & Stanley Winer, 2006. "Policy-induced internal migration: An empirical investigation of the Canadian case," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 535-564, September.
  6. Faini, Riccardo & Galli, Giampaolo & Gennari, Pietro & Rossi, Fulvio, 1997. "An empirical puzzle: Falling migration and growing unemployment differentials among Italian regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 571-579, April.
  7. Ayat, Leila & Burridge, Peter, 2000. "Unit root tests in the presence of uncertainty about the non-stochastic trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 71-96, March.
  8. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Joseph DeJuan & Marc Tomljanovich, 2005. "Income convergence across Canadian provinces in the 20th century: Almost but not quite there," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 567-592, 09.
  10. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
  11. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
  12. Phillip Swagel & Steven Vincent Dunaway & Martin David Kaufman, 2003. "Regional Convergence and the Role of Federal Transfers in Canada," IMF Working Papers 03/97, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Lars Osberg & Daniel V. Gordon & Zhengxi Lin, 1994. "Interregional Migration and Interindustry Labour Mobility in Canada: A Simultaneous Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 58-80, February.
  14. Moon, Hyungsik R., 1999. "A note on fully-modified estimation of seemingly unrelated regressions models with integrated regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 25-31, October.
  15. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2000. "Improving the Reliability of Bootstrap Tests," Working Papers 995, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  16. Serge Coulombe & Kathleen M. Day, 1999. "Economic Growth and Regional Income Disparities in Canada and the Northern United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(2), pages 155-178, June.
  17. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Convergence and Migration among Provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 324-30, April.
  18. D C, 1971. "Migration," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 26(4), pages 779-779.
  19. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
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