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The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study

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  • Basher, Syed A.
  • Fachin, Stefano

Abstract

Migration between the Canadian provinces generally followed a declining trend over the period 1971-2004. In this paper, taking Ontario a case study, we seek to explain these patterns using recent panel cointegration methods that are robust to cross-section dependence. Estimation of heterogenous models suggests that the determinants of migration vary across provinces. Overall, unemployment differential and income in the sending province appear to be the most important ones, with income and federal transfer differentials playing only a minor role.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6685.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6685

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Keywords: Internal migration; panel cointegration; bootstrap; Canada;

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  1. Kathleen M. Day & Stanley L. Winer, 2005. "Policy-induced Internal Migration: An Empirical Investigation of the Canadian Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 1605, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2000. "Improving the Reliability of Bootstrap Tests," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 995, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Moon, Hyungsik R., 1999. "A note on fully-modified estimation of seemingly unrelated regressions models with integrated regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 25-31, October.
  5. Serge Coulombe & Kathleen M. Day, 1999. "Economic Growth and Regional Income Disparities in Canada and the Northern United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(2), pages 155-178, June.
  6. Joseph DeJuan & Marc Tomljanovich, 2005. "Income convergence across Canadian provinces in the 20th century: Almost but not quite there," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 567-592, 09.
  7. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Convergence and Migration among Provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 324-30, April.
  8. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
  9. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
  10. Shaw, R Paul, 1986. "Fiscal versus Traditional Market Variables in Canadian Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 648-66, June.
  11. Ayat, Leila & Burridge, Peter, 2000. "Unit root tests in the presence of uncertainty about the non-stochastic trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 71-96, March.
  12. Elizabeth C. Wakerly & Byron G. Scott & James M. Nason, 2004. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2004-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Osberg, L. & Gordon, D. & Lin, Z., 1992. "Inter-Regional Migration and Inter-Industry Labour Mobility in Canada: A Simultaneous Approach," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive, Dalhousie, Department of Economics 92-08, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
  14. D C, 1971. "Migration," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 26(4), pages 779-779.
  15. Thomas J. Courchene, 1970. "Interprovincial Migration and Economic Adjustment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 550-76, November.
  16. Phillip Swagel & Steven Vincent Dunaway & Martin David Kaufman, 2003. "Regional Convergence and the Role of Federal Transfers in Canada," IMF Working Papers 03/97, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  18. Masao Ogaki & Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regression," Working Papers, Ohio State University, Department of Economics 04-02, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  19. Faini, Riccardo & Galli, Giampaolo & Gennari, Pietro & Rossi, Fulvio, 1997. "An empirical puzzle: Falling migration and growing unemployment differentials among Italian regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 571-579, April.
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