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The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States

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Gerald Carlino
Robert DeFina

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Abstract

This paper uses time-series techniques to examine whether monetary policy has similar effects across U.S. states during the 1958-92 period. Impulse response functions from estimated structural vector autoregression models reveal differences in state policy responses, which in some cases are substantial. The paper also provides evidence on the reasons for the measured cross-state differential policy responses. The size of a state's response is significantly related to its industry mix, evidence of an interest rate channel for monetary policy. The state-level data offer no support for recently advanced credit-channel theories of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 97-12.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:97-12

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Regional economics ; Time-series analysis;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Is there a bank lending channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ben S. Bernanke, 1993. "Credit in the macroeconomy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 50-70.
  4. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1993. " The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 95(1), pages 43-64.
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  9. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Balance Sheets," NBER Working Papers 4821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. John H. Boyd & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The role of large banks in the recent U.S. banking crisis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-21. [Downloadable!]
  12. Richard M. Todd, 1990. "Vector autoregression evidence on monetarism: another look at the robustness debate," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 19-37. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-47, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  20. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower nor a Lender Be," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 625-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Boschen, John F & Mills, Leonard O, 1995. "The Relation between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 24-44, January.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Long Run Effects of Money on Real Consumption and Investment in the U.S," Macroeconomics 0404007, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ridhwan, M.M. & Nijkamp, P. & Rietveld, P. & Groot, H.L.F. de, 2008. "Regional development and monetary policy : a review of the role of monetary unions, capital mobility and locational effects," Serie Research Memoranda 0007, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Di Giacinto, Valter, 2002. "Differential regional effects of monetary policy: a geographical SVAR approach," ERSA conference papers ersa02p257, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Geographic Distribution of the Size and Timing of Monetary Policy Actions," Working papers 2004-22, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mary Daly & John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Does regional economic performance affect bank health? New analysis of an old question," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  8. Burton A. Abrams & Margaret Z. Clarke & Russell F. Settle, 2003. "Do Banks Matter? A Credit View Model for Small Open Economies," Working Papers 03-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Katharina Raabe & Ivo Arnold & Clemens Kool, 2006. "Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission: A Theoretical Model on the Role of Capital Investment Expenditures," Working Papers 06-14, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1999. "Do states respond differently to changes in monetary policy?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 17-27. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2007. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy," Working Papers 2006-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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