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Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation

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Author Info

  • Jason Allen
  • Robert Amano
  • David P. Byrne
  • Allen W. Gregory

Abstract

The authors provide a detailed empirical analysis of Canadian city housing prices. They examine the long-run relationship between city house prices in Canada from 1981 to 2005 as well as idiosyncratic relations between city prices and city-specific variables. The results suggest that city house prices are only weakly correlated in the long run, and that there is a disconnect between house prices and interest rates. City-specific variables such as union wage levels, new-housing prices, and the issuance of building permits tend to be positively related to city existing-house prices. Surprisingly, there is mixed evidence with respect to standard measures of economic activity, such as labour force and per capita GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 06-49.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:06-49

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Keywords: Regional economic developments;

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References

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  1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  2. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  3. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  5. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2006. "Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices," Working Papers 06-25, Bank of Canada.
  6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  7. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
  8. Michael C. Lovell, 1963. "Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series and Multiple Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 151, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Jesse M. Abraham & Patric H. Hendershott, 1994. "Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 4774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Allan W. Gregory, 1991. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Working Papers 811, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  15. Jack Selody & Carolyn Wilkins, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: A Canadian Perspective on the Issues," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2004(Autumn), pages 3-14.
  16. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
  2. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2012. "Search, Liquidity and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," Working Papers 1276, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Evridiki Tsounta, 2009. "Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A+L4242 Post-Crisis Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/235, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Tse, Chin-Bun & Rodgers, Timothy & Niklewski, Jacek, 2014. "The 2007 financial crisis and the UK residential housing market: Did the relationship between interest rates and house prices change?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 518-530.
  5. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
  6. Marsha J. Courchane & Cynthia Holmes, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble ¡V Is there House Price Trouble -- in Canada?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 109-135.
  7. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada.
  8. Islam, Shahidul, 2007. "Neighbourhood Characteristics and Adjacent Ravines on House Prices," Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 10250, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.
  9. Luis M. Cubeddu & Camilo Ernesto Tovar Mora & Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America," IMF Working Papers 12/193, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jason Allen & Darcey McVanel, 2009. "Price Movements in the Canadian Residential Mortgage Market," Working Papers 09-13, Bank of Canada.

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