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International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market

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  • Tomura, Hajime

Abstract

This paper analyzes the roles of credit market conditions in endogenous formation of housing-market boom-bust cycles in a business cycle model. When households are uncertain about the duration of a temporary high income growth period, expected future house prices rise during the high growth period and fall at the end of the period. But this development causes expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in current house prices only if the economy is open to international capital flows. It is also shown that high maximum loan-to-value ratios for residential mortgages per se do not cause boom-bust cycles without international capital flows in the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 1993-2009

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:10:p:1993-2009

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Informational overshooting House prices Boom-bust cycles Credit market frictions Financial liberalization;

References

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  1. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  2. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  4. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Shakeouts and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 10556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1rh4s127, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  8. Benito, Andrew & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2009. "Excess Sensitivity, Liquidity Constraints, And The Collateral Role Of Housing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 305-326, June.
  9. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  10. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allen W. Gregory, 2006. "Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation," Working Papers 06-49, Bank of Canada.
  11. Zeira, Joseph, 1993. "Informational Overshooting, Booms and Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
  13. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  14. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  16. Hajime Tomura, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 09-15, Bank of Canada.
  17. Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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