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International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market

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  • Tomura, Hajime

Abstract

This paper analyzes the roles of credit market conditions in endogenous formation of housing-market boom-bust cycles in a business cycle model. When households are uncertain about the duration of a temporary high income growth period, expected future house prices rise during the high growth period and fall at the end of the period. But this development causes expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in current house prices only if the economy is open to international capital flows. It is also shown that high maximum loan-to-value ratios for residential mortgages per se do not cause boom-bust cycles without international capital flows in the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 1993-2009

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:10:p:1993-2009

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Informational overshooting House prices Boom-bust cycles Credit market frictions Financial liberalization;

References

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  12. Thomas Lubik & Wing Teo, 2005. "Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Economics Working Paper Archive 522, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luisa Lambertini & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2011. "Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices," Working Papers w201108, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
  3. Luisa Lambertini & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2010. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1021, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Akbar, Delwar & Rolfe, John & Kabir, S.M. Zobaidul, 2013. "Predicting impacts of major projects on housing prices in resource based towns with a case study application to Gladstone, Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 481-489.
  5. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "Real Estate Valuation, Current Account, and Credit Growth Patterns Before and After the 2008–2009 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 429, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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