International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market
Abstract
This paper analyzes the roles of credit market conditions in endogenous formation of housing-market boom-bust cycles in a business cycle model. When households are uncertain about the duration of a temporary high income growth period, expected future house prices rise during the high growth period and fall at the end of the period. But this development causes expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in current house prices only if the economy is open to international capital flows. It is also shown that high maximum loan-to-value ratios for residential mortgages per se do not cause boom-bust cycles without international capital flows in the model.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 1993-2009
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc
Related research
Keywords: Informational overshooting House prices Boom-bust cycles Credit market frictions Financial liberalization;References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001.
"Closing Small Open Economy Models,"
Departmental Working Papers
200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006.
"Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?,"
NBER Working Papers
12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
- Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2004.
"Shakeouts and Market Crashes,"
NBER Working Papers
10556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Shakeouts And Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 385-420, 05.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008.
"Current account patterns and national real estate markets,"
Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt1rh4s127, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
- Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "Current Account Patterns and National Real Estate Markets," NBER Working Papers 13921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2002.
"House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
- Benito, Andrew & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2009. "Excess Sensitivity, Liquidity Constraints, And The Collateral Role Of Housing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 305-326, June.
- Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997.
"Credit Cycles,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ryo Kato, 2003. "Matlab code for Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles," QM&RBC Codes 113, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allen W. Gregory, 2006.
"Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation,"
Working Papers
06-49, Bank of Canada.
- Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
- Zeira, Joseph, 1993.
"Informational Overshooting, Booms and Crashes,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Zeira, Joseph, 1999. "Informational overshooting, booms, and crashes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 237-257, February.
- Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008.
"News and Business Cycles in Open Economies,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 13444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2007. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 6520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Discussion Papers 07-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
- Hajime Tomura, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 09-15, Bank of Canada.
- Rob, Rafael, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 655-75, July.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011.
"Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?,"
Working Papers
w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers 2012/23, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:10:p:1993-2009For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

