Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rose Cunningham
  • Ilan Kolet
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada. Using a panel of 137 cities, we examine the duration, size, and correlations of housing market cycles in North America. We find that North American housing cycles are long, averaging five years of expansion and four years of contraction, and there is a fairly high degree of correlation in house price cycles between U.S. and Canadian cities. We estimate a discrete time survival model with a probit specification for house price expansions and contractions. This model allows us to test for duration dependence. We find that housing market expansions have positive duration dependence since their exit probabilities increase with duration, while contractions seem to have no duration dependence. Standard determinants of house prices (interest rates, income and population growth) are included as controls.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp07-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 07-2.

    as in new window
    Length: 48 pages
    Date of creation: 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-2

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
    Phone: 613 782-8845
    Fax: 613 782-8874
    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

    Related research

    Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Pok-sang Lam, 2004. "A Markov-Switching Model Of Gnp Growth With Duration Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 175-204, 02.
    2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    3. Kristopher Gerardi & Harvey S. Rosen & Paul Willen, 2006. "Do households benefit from financial deregulation and innovation?: the case of the mortgage market," Public Policy Discussion Paper 06-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2004. "How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro F. Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2045, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1991. "Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence," Working Papers 91-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    6. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    7. Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Economics Working Papers E01-308, University of California at Berkeley.
    8. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," CEPR Discussion Papers 5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven Saks, 2003. "Why is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in House Prices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2020, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Oecd, 2006. "Are House Prices Nearing a Peak?: A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 488, OECD Publishing.
    11. Richard Herring & Susan Wachter, . "Bubbles in Real Estate Markets," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 402, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
    12. Jose Ceron & Javier Suarez, 2006. "Hot And Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," Working Papers wp2006_0603, CEMFI.
    13. Robert F. Martin, 2006. "The Baby Boom: Predictability in House Prices and Interest Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Jonathan Ohn & Larry W. Taylor & Adrian Pagan, 2004. "Testing for duration dependence in economic cycles," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 528-549, December.
    15. Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle duration dependence: a parametric approach," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 98, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    17. Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994. "Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-88, July.
    18. Holly, S. & Pesaran, M.H. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0654, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
    20. Nicholas Di Venuto & Allan Layton, 2005. "Do The Phases Of The Business Cycle Die Of Old Age?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 290-305, 09.
    21. Layton, Allan P. & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 855-875, December.
    22. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
    23. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1216, Econometric Society.
    24. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June.
    25. N. Kundan Kishor, 2007. "Does Consumption Respond More to Housing Wealth Than to Financial Market Wealth? If So, Why?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 427-448, November.
    26. Zuehlke, Thomas W, 2003. "Business Cycle Duration Dependence Reconsidered," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 564-69, October.
    27. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 93-114, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.