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Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada

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Author Info
Rose Cunningham
Ilan Kolet
Abstract

Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada. Using a panel of 137 cities, we examine the duration, size, and correlations of housing market cycles in North America. We find that North American housing cycles are long, averaging five years of expansion and four years of contraction, and there is a fairly high degree of correlation in house price cycles between U.S. and Canadian cities. We estimate a discrete time survival model with a probit specification for house price expansions and contractions. This model allows us to test for duration dependence. We find that housing market expansions have positive duration dependence since their exit probabilities increase with duration, while contractions seem to have no duration dependence. Standard determinants of house prices (interest rates, income and population growth) are included as controls.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 07-2.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-2

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Related research
Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2083, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jonathan Ohn & Larry W. Taylor & Adrian Pagan, 2004. "Testing for duration dependence in economic cycles," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 528-549, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 93-114, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  5. Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994. "Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-88, July.
    Other versions:
  6. N. Kundan Kishor, 2007. "Does Consumption Respond More to Housing Wealth Than to Financial Market Wealth? If So, Why?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 427-448, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2006. "A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the US," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel E. Sichel, 1991. "Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence," Working Papers 91-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  11. Ceron, Jose A. & Suarez, Javier, 2006. "Hot and Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Pok-sang Lam, 2004. "A Markov-Switching Model Of Gnp Growth With Duration Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 175-204, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  18. Zuehlke, Thomas W, 2003. "Business Cycle Duration Dependence Reconsidered," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 564-69, October.
  19. Nicholas Di Venuto & Allan Layton, 2005. "Do The Phases Of The Business Cycle Die Of Old Age?," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(3), pages 290-305, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Kristopher Gerardi & Harvey S. Rosen & Paul Willen, 2007. "Do Households Benefit from Financial Deregulation and Innovation? The Case of the Mortgage Market," NBER Working Papers 12967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Terence C. Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: an international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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