Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970-2003

Contents:

Author Info

  • PETER ABELSON
  • ROSELYNE JOYEUX
  • GEORGE MILUNOVICH
  • DEMI CHUNG

Abstract

This paper aims to explain changes in real house prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003. We develop and estimate a long-run equilibrium model that shows the real long-run economic determinants of house prices and a short-run asymmetric error correction model to represent house price changes in the short run. We find that, in the long run, real house prices are determined significantly and positively by real disposable income and the consumer price index. They are also determined significantly and negatively by the unemployment rate, real mortgage rates, equity prices and the housing stock. Employing our short-run asymmetric error correction model, we find that there are significant lags in adjustment to equilibrium. When real house prices are rising at more than 2 per cent per annum, the housing market adjusts to equilibrium in approximately four quarters. When real house prices are static or falling, the adjustment process takes six quarters. Copyright 2005 The Economic Society Of Australia.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=ecor&volume=81&issue=s1&year=2005&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 81 (2005)
Issue (Month): s1 (08)
Pages: S96-S103

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:81:y:2005:i:s1:p:s96-s103

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Central Council Administration, L.P.O. Box 2161, Hawthorn VIC 3122
Phone: 61 3 9497 4140
Fax: 61 3 9497 4140
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0249
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0013-0249

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Orhan Erdem & Hande Oruc & Yusuf Varli, 2013. "Housing Market and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(51), pages 58-81, April.
  2. Alberto Montagnoli & Jun Nagaysu, 2013. "An investigation of housing affordability in the UK regions," Working Papers 1316, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  3. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou, 2014. "Forecasting the U.S. Real House Price Index," Working Papers 201418, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Tse, Chin-Bun & Rodgers, Timothy & Niklewski, Jacek, 2014. "The 2007 financial crisis and the UK residential housing market: Did the relationship between interest rates and house prices change?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 518-530.
  5. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "Are House Prices Characterized by Threshold Effects? Evidence from Developed and Post-Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 584-600, December.
  7. Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.
  8. Abdul Aziz, Ahmad Faizal, 2011. "Causality of Residential Properties Price Movements in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 47682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working papers 2012-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  10. Sarah Drought & Chris McDonald, 2011. "Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Phil Briggs, 2007. "Lessons learned from the Economics Department's research work on household balance sheets and related issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 70, December.
  12. James Bugden & Iain Fraser & Jeffrey S. Racine & Robert Waschik, 2014. "Parametric and Nonparametric Analysis of Tax Changes," Department of Economics Working Papers 2014-02, McMaster University.
  13. Katja Hanewald & Michael Sherris, 2011. "House Price Risk Models for Banking and Insurance Applications," Working Papers 201118, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
  14. Mustafa Akan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model of Pension Fund Companies," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(51), pages 1-20, April.
  15. Muellbauer, John & Williams, David M, 2011. "Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room," CEPR Discussion Papers 8386, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Dan Andrews, 2010. "Real House Prices in OECD Countries: The Role of Demand Shocks and Structural and Policy Factors," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 831, OECD Publishing.
  17. Baris Teke, 2013. "Effects of a Change in the Composition of IMKB 30 on Stock Performance," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(51), pages 21-57, April.
  18. Greg Costello & Patricia Fraser & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2010. "House Prices, Non-Fundamental Components and Interstate Spillovers: The Australian Experience," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  19. David G McMillan, 2012. "Long-run stock price-house price relation: evidence from an ESTR model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1737-1746.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:81:y:2005:i:s1:p:s96-s103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.