House Prices, Consumption and the Role of Non-Mortgage Debt
AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between house prices and consumption, through the use of debt. Using unique Canadian household-level data that reports the uses of debt, we begin by looking at the relationship between house prices and debt. Using quantile regression, we find a positive and significant relationship between regional house prices and total household debt all along the conditional debt distribution. This suggests that the household-level relationship between house prices and debt goes beyond the purchase of real estate. We then find a positive relationship between house prices and non-mortgage debt (the sum of secured lines of credit, unsecured lines of credit, leases and other consumer loans, except for credit cards) for homeowners. Combining these results with the reported uses of non-mortgage debt allows us to connect house prices and nonhousing consumption - this connection is new to the literature on house prices and consumption. We conclude that the increases in house prices over the 1999-2007 period were, indeed, associated with an increase in non-mortgage debt and non-housing consumption. Our results can be thought of as the establishment of a conservative lower bound for the overall relationship between house prices and aggregate consumption.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 13-2.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Credit and credit aggregates; Domestic demand and components;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
- D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Personal Finance
- D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-01-19 (Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2013-01-19 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2013-01-19 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2011.
"Housing and Debt over the Life Cycle and over the Business Cycle,"
2011/04, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
- Iacoviello, Matteo & Pavan, Marina, 2013. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-238.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2011. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 1032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2009. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Working Papers 09-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Marina Pavan, 2009. "Housing and Debt Over the Life Cycle and Over the Business Cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 723, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 19 Sep 2011.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2009.
"Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and Expectations,"
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 20-50, 02.
- Orazio Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2005. "Booms and busts: consumption, house prices and expectations," IFS Working Papers W05/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Shubhasis Dey & Ramdane Djoudad & Yaz Terajima, 2008. "A Tool for Assessing Financial Vulnerabilities in the Household Sector," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2008(Summer), pages 47-56.
- Moshe Buchinsky, 1998. "Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 88-126.
- Jeannine Bailliu & Katya Kartashova & Césaire Meh, 2011. "Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Winter), pages 16-29.
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011.
"House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-56, August.
- Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the U.S. Household Leverage Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jason Allen & H. Evren Damar & David Martinez-Miera, 2012. "Consumer Bankruptcy and Information," Working Papers 12-18, Bank of Canada.
- Heckman, James J, 1979.
"Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error,"
Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
- Allan Crawford & Umar Faruqui, 2011. "What Explains Trends in Household Debt in Canada?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Winter), pages 3-15.
- Moshe Buchinsky & Jinyong Hahn, 1998. "An Alternative Estimator for the Censored Quantile Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 653-672, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.