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Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and Expectations

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Author Info
ORAZIO P. ATTANASIO
LAURA BLOW
ROBERT HAMILTON
ANDREW LEICESTER

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Abstract

Over much of the past 25 years, house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronized. Three main hypotheses for this have been proposed: increases in house prices raise household wealth and so their consumption; house price growth reduces credit constraints by increasing the collateral available to homeowners; and house prices and consumption are together influenced by common factors. Using microeconomic data, we find that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, contradicting the wealth channel. We suggest that common causality has been the most important factor linking house prices and consumption. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2008.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00708.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 76 (2009)
Issue (Month): 301 (02)
Pages: 20-50
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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:76:y:2009:i:301:p:20-50

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2083, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2003. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," NBER Working Papers 9462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. repec:bep:mactop:v:4:y:2004:i:1:p:1114-1114 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Economics Working Papers E01-308, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "The relationship between stock prices, house prices and consumption in OECD countries," MEA discussion paper series 04044, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  7. repec:bep:macadv:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1235-1235 is not listed on IDEAS
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  1. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267- 334. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Andrew Benito & Haroon Mumtaz, . "Consumption excess sensitivity, liquidity constraints and the collateral role of housing," Bank of England working papers 306, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Charles Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2009. "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect," NBER Working Papers 15075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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