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Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective

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Author Info
HANNO N. LUSTIG
STIJN G. VAN NIEUWERBURGH

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Abstract

In a model with housing collateral, the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth shifts the conditional distribution of asset prices and consumption growth. A decrease in house prices reduces the collateral value of housing, increases household exposure to idiosyncratic risk, and increases the conditional market price of risk. Using aggregate data for the United States, we find that a decrease in the ratio of housing wealth to human wealth predicts higher returns on stocks. "Conditional" on this ratio, the covariance of returns with aggregate risk factors explains 80% of the cross-sectional variation in annual size and book-to-market portfolio returns. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00759.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 1167-1219
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:3:p:1167-1219

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  1. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Steven R. Grenadier, 2006. "Stock and Bond Returns with Moody Investors," NBER Working Papers 12247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. François Gourio, 2005. "Operating Leverage,Stock Market Cyclicality,and the Cross-Section of Returns," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-002, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Risk, Uncertainty and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 12248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Wealth Shocks and Risk Aversion," NIPE Working Papers 28/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laura Veldkamp & Chris Edmond, 2006. "Income Dispersion, Asymmetric Information and Fluctuations in Market Efficiency," Working Papers 06-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Shcherbakova, 2008. "Consumption risk sharing over the business cycle: the role of small firms' access to credit markets," IEW - Working Papers iewwp363, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hanno Lustig, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk (joint with Adrien Verdelhan)(updated February 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 303, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Richard K. Green & Amy Crews Cutts & Buchi Ramagopal, 2006. "Mortgage Contracts and Household Risk Management," Working Papers 0004, School of Business, The George Washington University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 22 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hanno Lustig, 2004. "Can Housing Collateral Explain Long-Run Swings in Asset Returns? (joint with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 322, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2004. "A Theory of Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 10955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2005. "The Cross-Section of Currency Risk Premia and US Consumption Growth Risk," NBER Working Papers 11104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. In Choi & Timothy K. Chue, 2006. "Subsampling-Based Tests of Stock-Return Predictability," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-178, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Franzoni, Francesco & Adrian, Tobias, 2005. "Learning about Beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns and the conditional CAPM," Les Cahiers de Recherche 828, Groupe HEC. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Expectations, Shocks, and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 29/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jonathan McCarthy & Charles Steindel, 2006. "Housing activity, home values, and consumer spending," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, pages 78-89. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michael W. Brandt & David A. Chapman, 2006. "Linear Approximations and Tests of Conditional Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 12513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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