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The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk

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Author Info
Adrien Verdelhan () (Department of Economics, Boston University)
Hanno Lustig (UCLA/ NBER)

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Abstract

Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate di®erential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate di®erential. We sort foreign currency returns into portfolios based on foreign interest rates, and we test the Euler equation of a domestic investor who invests in these currency portfolios. We ¯nd that domestic investors earn negative excess returns on low interest rate currency portfolios and positive excess returns on high interest rate currency portfolios. Because high interest rate currencies depreciate on average when domestic consumption growth is low and low interest rate currencies do not under the same conditions, low interest rate currencies provide domestic investors with a hedge against domestic aggregate consumption growth risk.

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Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number WP2005-019.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2005-019

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Keywords: Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing.;

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Cited by:
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  1. Dennis Quinn & Joachim Voth, 2006. "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001," Economics Working Papers 1119, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Hanno Lustig, 2005. "Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution (joint with Adrien Verdelhan, BU, forthcoming in Papers and Proceedings JEEA)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 368, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Aidan Corcoran, 2009. "The Determinants of Carry Trade Risk Premia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp287, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  7. Douglas Steigerwald & Jack Erb, 2007. "Accurately Sized Test Statistics with Misspecified Conditional Homoskedasticity," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 09-07, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pierre Perron† & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-031, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Stephen Gilmore & Fumio Hayashi, 2008. "Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Craig Burnside, 2007. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: A Comment," NBER Working Papers 13129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Note on The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," NBER Working Papers 13812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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