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Predictive Regressions

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Author Info
Robert F. Stambaugh

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Abstract

When a rate of return is regressed on a lagged stochastic regressor, such as a dividend yield, the regression disturbance is correlated with the regressor's innovation. The OLS estimator's finite-sample properties, derived here, can depart substantially from the standard regression setting. Bayesian posterior distributions for the regression parameters are obtained under specifications that differ with respect to (i) prior beliefs about the autocorrelation of the regressor and (ii) whether the initial observation of the regressor is specified as fixed or stochastic. The posteriors differ across such specifications asset allocations in the presence of estimation risk exhibit sensitivity to those differences.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0240.

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Date of creation: May 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0240

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis

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References listed on IDEAS
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  5. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-99, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "The exact moments of the least squares estimator for the autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 159-172, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:672-700 is not listed on IDEAS
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  14. Stock, James H, 1991. "Bayesian Approaches to the 'Unit Root' Problem: A Comment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 403-11, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
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  21. Nankervis, J. C. & Savin, N. E., 1988. "The exact moments of the least-squares estimator for the autoregressive model corrections and extensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 381-388, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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