The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis
AbstractThe hypothesis that forward prices are the best unbiased forecast of future spot prices is often presented in the economic and financial analysis of futures markets. This paper considers the hypothesis independently of its implications for rational expectations or market efficiency and in order to stress this fact, the term "speculative efficiency" is used to characterize the state envisaged under the hypothesis. If a market is subject to efficient speculation, the supply of speculative funds is infinitely elastic at the forward price that is equal to the expected future spot price. The expected future spot price is a market price determined as the solution to the underlying rational expectations macroeconomic model. Although the paper is primarily concerned with testing this hypothesis in the foreign exchange market, the methodology introduced in the paper is of general application to all futures markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0474.
Date of creation: Apr 1980
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Bilson, John F.O. "The 'Speculative Efficiency' Hypothesis." Journal of Business, Vol. 54, No. 3, (June 1981), pp. 435-451.
Note: ITI IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geweke, John F & Feige, Edgar L, 1979. "Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 334-41, August.
- Hakkio, Craig S., 1981.
"The term structure of the forward premium,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-58.
- Craig S. Hakkio, 1979. "The Term Structure of the Forward Premium," Discussion Papers 404, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Craig S. Hakkio, 1980. "The Term Structure of the Forward Premium," NBER Working Papers 0426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bilson, John F O, 1981.
"The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
- Goodman, Stephen H, 1979. "Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques: Implications for Business and Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 415-27, May.
- André Farber & Eugene Fama, 1979.
"Money, bonds and foreign exchange,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/11356, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Craig S. Hakkio, 1980.
"Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
0439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ralph Tryon, 1979. "Testing for rational expectations in foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
- John F. O. Bilson, 1979. "Recent Developments in Monetary Models of Exchange Rate Determination (Evolution rÃ©cente des modÃ¨les monÃ©taires de dÃ©termination des taux de change) (Progreso reciente en el campo de los m," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(2), pages 201-223, June.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1979. "The diversifiability of exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 379-393, August.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.