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Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Foreign Exchange Rate Market

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  • Graham Elliott
  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the conventional tests of efficiency (unbiasedness) of the forward rate or of the survey forecasts do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey data to calculate directly potential profits of individual forecasters based on a natural trading rule. We find that although the survey data are not the best predictor of future spot rate in terms of typical mean square forecast error criteria, the survey data can be used to obtain on average positive profits. However, these profits are small and highly variable. We also examine profits generated by a trading rule using regression forecasts, where forward premium is an explanatory variable. These profits are also small and highly variable.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5376.

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Date of creation: Dec 1995
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Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 43, no. 2 (April 1999): 435-456.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5376

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  1. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  3. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1994. "The Forward Premium Anamoly: Three Examples in Search of a Solution," GSIA Working Papers 7, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  4. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  5. Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-90, June.
  6. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
  7. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
  8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  10. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  11. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  13. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  14. Breen, William & Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1989. " Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1177-89, December.
  15. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1986. "The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. " Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June.
  17. Hakkio, Craig S, 1981. "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-78, October.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  19. Cumby, Robert E., 1988. "Is it risk? : Explaining deviations from uncovered interest parity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 279-299, September.
  20. John F. O. Bilson, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Sergey V. Chernenko, 2004. "The information content of forward and futures prices: market expectations and the price of risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 808, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Financial Asset Returns, Market Timing, and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-02, CIRANO.
  4. Sonia PangusiĆ³n Espinosa., . "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 128, FEDEA.

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