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Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate

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  • Hakkio, Craig S

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical examination of the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate provides an "optimal" forecast of the future spot ex-change rate, for five currencies relative to the dollar. This hypothesis provides a convenient norm for examining the erratic behavior of exchange rates; this erratic behavior represents an efficient market that is quickly incorporating new information into the current exchange rate. This hypothesis is analyzed using two distinct, but related, approaches. The first approach is based on a regression of spot rates on lagged forward rates. When using weekly data and a one month forward exchange rate, ordinary least squares regression analysis of market efficiency is incorrect. Econometric methods are proposed which allow for consistent (though not fully efficient) estimation of the parameters and their standard errors. This paper also presents a new approach for testing exchange market efficiency. This approach is based on a general time series process generating the spot and forward exchange rate. The hypothesis of efficiency implies a set of cross-equation restrictions imposed on the parameters of the time series model. This paper derives these restrictions, proposes a maximum likelihood method of estimating the constrained likelihood function, estimates the model and tests the validity of the restrictions with a likelihood ration statistic.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 22 (1981)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 663-78

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:22:y:1981:i:3:p:663-78

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References

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  1. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Generalized Least Squares with an Estimated Autocovariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 723-32, July.
  2. Geweke, John F & Feige, Edgar L, 1979. "Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 334-41, August.
  3. Roll, Richard & Solnik, Bruno, 1977. "A pure foreign exchange asset pricing model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 161-179, May.
  4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  5. Christopher A. Sims, 1972. "Are There Exogenous Variables in Short-Run Production Relations," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 1, pages 16-35 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  7. Ralph Tryon, 1979. "Testing for rational expectations in foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Hatanaka, Michio, 1974. "An efficient two-step estimator for the dynamic adjustment model with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 199-220, September.
  9. Richard G. Harris & Douglas D. Purvis, 1978. "Diverse Information and Market Efficiency in a Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 309, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Grauer, Frederick L. A. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Stehle, Richard E., 1976. "Sharing rules and equilibrium in an international capital market under uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-256, June.
  11. Fama, Eugene F & Farber, Andre, 1979. "Money, Bonds, and Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 639-49, September.
  12. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
  13. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-26, December.
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