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Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment: Evaluating Some Proposals for Reform

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  • Jacob A. Frenkel
  • Morris Goldstein

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze several proposals for reducing the volatility and/or misalignment of key-currency exchange rates. The proposals examined are a system of target zones, the imposition of controls or taxes on international capital flows, and a strengthening of international coordination over economic policies. We also review key characteristics of the behavior of major-currency exchange rates over the period of floating rates and examine the various criteria or standards for drawing inferences about excess volatility and misalignment. In evaluating exchange rate volatility, attention is directed toward the influence of the exchange rate regime, to the behavior of fundamentals, to the volatility of both goods prices and other asset prices, to the costs of exchange rate volatility, and to the nature of shocks facing the economy. Turning to misalignment, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of the purchasing-power-parity approach, of the underlying balance approach, and of the sustainability approach. We argue that inferences about excess exchange rate volatility and misalignment are subject to wide margins of error and that the exchange rate experience of the past 15 years is subject to multiple interpretations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2894.

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Date of creation: Aug 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2894

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  1. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 506, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
  4. Ralph Tryon, 1979. "Testing for rational expectations in foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Michael P. Dooley & Jeffrey R. Shafer, 1976. "Analysis of short-run exchange behavior: March, 1993 to September, 1975," International Finance Discussion Papers 76, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1987. "The International Monetary System: Should It Be Reformed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 205-10, May.
  7. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  8. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
  9. Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Standard Monetary Model and the Variability of the Deutschemark-DollarExchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 2102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Feldstein, Martin S, 1988. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Thinking about International Economic Coordination," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 3-13, Spring.
  13. Peter Hooper & Catherine L. Mann, 1987. "The U.S. external deficit: its causes and persistence," International Finance Discussion Papers 316, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  15. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
  16. Atish R. Ghosh & Paul R. Masson, 1988. "International Policy Coordination in a World with Model Uncertainty," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(2), pages 230-258, June.
  17. repec:imf:imfocp:30 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  19. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
  20. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein & Paul R. Masson, 1988. "International Coordination of Economic Policies: Scope, Methods, and Effects," NBER Working Papers 2670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Jacob A. Frenkel & Joshua Aizenman, 1983. "Aspects of the Optimal Management of Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 1-76.
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Cited by:
  1. Khalid Sekkat, 2001. "On the Aggregate Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on EU Trade," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(1), pages 57-78, 02.
  2. Ngongang, Elie, 2011. "Impact of Exchange Rate Policy on the Trade of Industrial Products in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1975 to 2007," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 7(1-2).
  3. Dubas, Justin M., 2009. "The Importance of the Exchange Rate Regime in Limiting Misalignment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1612-1622, October.
  4. Pippenger, John, 2002. "A Better Measure of Relative Volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt3tp6j494, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  5. Salvatore, Dominick, 1995. "The operation and future of the international monetary system," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 513-530, October.
  6. Andreas Savvides, 1992. "Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 446-463, September.
  7. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  8. Aggarwal, Raj & Schirm, David C., 1998. "Asymmetric impact of trade balance news on asset prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 83-100, January.

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