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The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives

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Author Info
Rudiger Dornbusch
Jeffrey A. Frankel

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Abstract

We review ten aspects of how floating exchange rates have worked in practice, contrasted with ten characteristics that the system was supposed to have in theory. We conclude that the foreign exchange market is characterized by high transactions-volume, short-term horizons, and an absence of stabilizing speculation. As a result, the exchange rate at times strays from the equilibrium level dictated by fundamentals, contrary to theory. We then look at ten proposed alternatives to the current system. Four entail decentralized policy rules: new classical macroeconomics, a gold standard, monetarism, and nominal income targeting. Four foresee enhanced international coordination: G-7 "objective indicators," Williamson target zones, McKinnon "world monetarism," and a "Hosomi Fund." Two propose enhanced independence: a "Tobin tax" on transactions, and a dual exchange rate. We conclude that one might build a case for intervention from the observed failure of international financial markets to behave as in the theoretical ideal, but that government intervention in practice is just as likely to fall short of the theoretical ideal

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2464.

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Date of creation: Jul 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2464

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  1. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "International Finance, Levy Distributions, and the Econophysics of Exchange Rates," International Finance 0405018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1996. "How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," NBER Working Papers 5422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Frydman, R. & Goldberg, M.D., 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 03-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Markus Haberer, 2003. "Some Criticism of the Tobin Tax," CoFE Discussion Paper 03-01, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  5. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Trade in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Feb 2009. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrea Terzi, 2004. "Is a transactions tax an effective means to stabilize the foreign exchange market?," International Finance 0403007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Richard Baldwin & Frauke Skudelny & Daria Taglioni, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro - evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Discussion Papers 03-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2002. "Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 02-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2002. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1991. "What has Foreign Market Intervention Since the Plaza Agreement Accomplished?," NBER Working Papers 3562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius & Roman Frydberg & Michael Goldberg, 2008. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with applications to the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," CREATES Research Papers 2008-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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