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Exchange-Rate Dynamics

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld
Alan C. Stockman

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Abstract

This paper discusses the dynamic behavior of exchange rates, focusing both on the exchange rate's response to exogenous shocks and the relation between exchange-rate movements and movements in important endogenous variables such as prices, interest rates, output, and the current account. Aspects of exchange-rate dynamics are studied in a variety of models, some of which are based on postulated supply and demand functions for assets and goods, and some of which are based on explicit individual utility-maximizing problems. Section 1 surveys the terrain. Section 2 explores the simplest model in which the relation among the exchange rate, price levels, and the terms of trade can be addressed -- a flexible-price small-country model in which wealth effects are absent and domestic and foreign goods are imperfect substitutes. Section 3 introduces market frictions so that the role of endogenous output fluctuations can be studied. Both sticky-price models and alternative market-friction models are discussed. Section 4 studies the link between the accumulation of foreign assets and domestic capital and the exchange rate.Section 5 examines deterministic and stochastic models in which individual behavior is derived from an explicit intertemporal optimization problem. Finally, section 6 offers concluding remarks.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1230.

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Date of creation: Apr 1985
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Publication status: published as Obstfeld, Maurice and Alan C. Stockman. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics." Handbook of International Economics, edited by P.B. Kenen and R.W. Jones, pp. 917- 977. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., (1985).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1230

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  2. John B. Taylor, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," NBER Reprints 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Other versions:
  3. Wilson, Charles A, 1979. "Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 639-47, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Wage indexation and macroeconomics stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 107-147, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  16. Lapan, Harvey E. & Enders, Walter, 2003. "Rational Expectations, Endogenous Currency Substitution, and Exchange Rate Determination," Staff General Research Papers 10821, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  17. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-98, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Barro, Robert J, 1980. "A Capital Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1393-1417, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
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  24. Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1980. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 374-81, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1982. "Dynamics of a Floating Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 728-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Stockman, Alan C. & Stockman, Alan C., 1983. "Real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange-rate systems," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 147-166, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Niehans, Jurg, 1977. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Stock/Flow Interaction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1245-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics With Sluggish Prices Under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," NBER Working Papers 1173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1977. "The Stability of Models of Money and Perfect Foresight: A Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(7), pages 1737-39, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Gray, Malcolm R & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1979. "The Stability of Exchange Rate Dynamics under Perfect Myopic Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 643-60, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  42. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "A Stochastic Equilibrium Model of an Open Economy under Flexible Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 149-64, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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