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Is the Strong Dollar Sustainable?

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Paul R. Krugman

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Abstract

This paper presents evidence strongly suggesting that the current strength of the dollar reflects myopic behavior by international investors; that is, that part of the dollar's strength can be viewed as a speculative bubble. At some point this bubble will burst, leading to a sharp fall in the dollar's value.The essential argument is that given the modest real interest differentials between the U.S. and its trading partners, the dollar'sstrength amounts to an implicit forecast on the part of the market that with high probability the dollar will remain very strong for an extended period. The paper shows that such sustained dollar strength would lead the U.S. to Latin American levels of debt relative to GNP, which is presumably not feasible. Allowing for the possibility that something will be done to bring the dollar down before this happens actually reinforces the argument that the current value of the dollar is unreasonable.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1644.

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Date of creation: Dec 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1644

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "The Making of Exchange Rate Policy in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 3539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2009. "Cointegration and asymmetric adjustment: Some new evidence concerning the behaviour of the US current account," Discussion Paper Series 2009_11, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1006, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Michael M. Hutchison & Adrian W. Throop, 1985. "U.S. budget deficits and the real value of the dollar," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 26-43. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Martin Feldstein, 1989. "The Budget Deficit and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 1898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Takatoshi Ito, 1999. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Working Papers 7134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Manuel H. Johnson & Bonnie E. Loopesko, 1986. "The yen-dollar relationship: a recent historical perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 288, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "America's Deficit, the World's Problem," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1062, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paul Krugman, 1988. "Adjustment in the World Economy," NBER Working Papers 2424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kathryn M. Dominguez & Jeffrey Frankel, 1994. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects for the Mark," NBER Working Papers 3299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Ignazio Visco, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment : commentary," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 209-231. [Downloadable!]
  13. Sung Yeung Kwack & Young Sun Lee, 1991. "Is The Korean Currency Won Strong Or Weak?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 87-105, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kenneth A. Froot & Takatoshi Ito, 1990. "On the Consistency of Short-run and Long-run Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalisists," NBER Working Papers 1854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Richard E. Baldwin, 1990. "Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests:Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands," NBER Working Papers 3319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Econometrics 9502001, EconWPA, revised 09 Aug 1995. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Michele Bullock & Stephen Grenville & Geoffrey Heenan, 1993. "The Exchange Rate and the Current Account," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.), The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  19. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. John P. Judd & Bharat Trehan, 1989. "Unemployment-rate dynamics: aggregate-demand and -supply interactions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 20-37. [Downloadable!]
  21. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Martin Feldstein, 1986. "U.S. Budget Deficits and the European Economies: Resolving the Political Economy Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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