Government Debt and Banking Fragility: The Spreading of Strategic Uncertainty
AbstractThis paper studies the interaction of government debt and banking markets. Both markets are known to be fragile: excessively responsive to fundamentals and prone to strategic uncertainty. Our analysis highlights the spillover from fragility in debt markets on banks and, through government bailout of troubled banks, spillovers from banks to the debt market. This interaction, termed a 'diabolic loop', is driven by government willingness to bail out banks and the resulting incentives for banks not to self-insure through equity buffers. We provide conditions such that the 'diabolic loop' is a Nash Equilibrium of the interaction between banks and the government.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19278.
Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
- H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CSE-2013-09-26 (Economics of Strategic Management)
- NEP-MAC-2013-09-26 (Macroeconomics)
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